A man wearing a mask walks by Century 21 department store, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2020 in the Brooklyn borough of New York. The discount department store chain has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and is closing its 13 stores. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)
By Christopher Rugaber
The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits declined last week to a still-high 837,000, evidence that the economy is struggling to sustain a tentative recovery that began this summer.
The Labor Department's report, released Thursday, suggests that companies are still cutting a historically high number of jobs, though the weekly numbers have become less reliable as states have increased their efforts to root out fraudulent claims and process earlier applications that have piled up.
For example, California, which accounts for more than one-quarter of aid applications, simply provided the same figure it submitted the previous week. The state had said it would stop accepting jobless claims online so it could tackle a backlog of 600,000 claims.
Measures of the U.S. economy have been sending mixed signals. Consumer confidence jumped in September, fueled by optimism among higher-income households, though it remains below pre-pandemic levels. And a measure of pending home sales rose in August to a record high, lifted by ultra-low mortgage rates.
Yet some real-time measures indicate that growth has lost momentum with the viral pandemic still squeezing many employers, especially small retailers, hotels, restaurants and airlines, nearly seven months after it paralyzed the economy. An economic index compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York grew in September at a weaker pace than during the summer months.
In its report on jobless claims Thursday, the Labor Department said the number of people who are continuing to receive benefits fell to 11.8 million, extending a steady decline since spring. That suggests that many of the unemployed are being recalled to their old jobs.
But it also reflects the fact that tens of thousands of jobless Americans have exhausted their regular state unemployment benefits. Some of them are likely transitioning to an extended jobless aid program that provides benefits for an additional three months.
Weekly applications for unemployment benefits are typically watched as a proxy for layoffs, although the data has become muddied in recent months. The flood of laid-off workers during the pandemic recession overwhelmed state agencies.
Congress also made millions of contractors and self-employed people eligible for jobless aid for the first time through a new program that is managed by state agencies. This program has further burdened the states.
The states’ efforts to clear backlogs and uncover fraud in the new program have made it harder to interpret the government’s report on unemployment benefits. Many economists no longer consider it a clear sign of the pace of layoffs.
Initial jobless claims are stuck above the highest levels reached in the 2008-2009 Great Recession. But last week, economists at Goldman Sachs noted that according to other government data, layoffs have fallen below the peaks of a decade ago.
Still, many large companies are announcing further layoffs.
The Walt Disney Co. said this week that it’s cutting 28,000 jobs in California and Florida, a consequence of the damage it’s suffered from the viral outbreak and the shutdowns and attendance limits that were imposed in response.
Allstate said it will shed 3,800 jobs — 7.5% of its workforce. And tens of thousands of airline workers will lose their jobs this month as federal aid to the airlines expires. The airlines were barred from cutting jobs as long as they were receiving the government assistance.
Late Wednesday, two of them — American and United — announced that they would begin to furlough 32,000 employees after lawmakers and the White House failed to agree on a pandemic relief package that would extend the aid to airlines.
On Friday, the government will issue the jobs report for September, the final such report before Election Day, Nov. 3. Analysts have forecast that it will show a gain of 850,000, which would mark the third straight monthly slowdown in job growth. It would mean that the economy has regained just over half the 22 million jobs that were lost to the pandemic.
The unemployment rate is expected to decline from 8.4% to 8.2%, according to data provider FactSet.
Venture capitalists and CEOs are clashing over the future of the internet. Web3 is the tech world's name for a decentralized, blockchain-based internet that runs on cryptocurrency. It was recently the topic of a tweet from Block CEO and former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey who wrote that Web3 will not actually be owned by users, and instead be controlled by rich venture capitalists. Dorsey later shared that he was blocked on Twitter by Marc Andreesen, co-founder of VC firm Andreesen Horowitz, which has invested billions of dollars into Web3 and crypto projects. Correspondent for DealBook from the New York Times, Ephrat Livni, joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss what this could mean for the future of Web3.
Jim Worden, Chief Investment Officer at Wealth Consulting Group, joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell, where he says the period between Christmas and New Year's is difficult to predict due to a lack of institutional volume, with the Omicron variant adding even more uncertainty on Wall Street.
Prices at the pump this year reached a seven-year high, and a new forecast from GasBuddy shared with CNN predicts that gas prices will only continue to rise in 2022 and that the national average could even reach $4.00 a gallon; however, analysts at GasBuddy say anything could happen when it comes to gas prices in the future, as the pandemic has made it difficult to make any predictions about the economy. Consumer Energy Alliance federal policy advisor Michael Zehr joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss.
The record-breaking success of "Squid Game" on Netflix has many media companies competing to produce, stream, and invest in new content from South Korea. Netflix has spent half a billion dollars on developing Korean content this year, and other streaming services are taking note. Seth Schachner, managing director at StratAmericas and digital business executive, joins Cheddar News to discuss.
Airlines had to ground 2,500 flights in the U.S. on Tuesday, with bad weather and workers out with COVID-19 blamed as the main culprits. Scott Keyes, founder of ScottsCheapFlights.com and author of "Take More Vacations," joined Cheddar News Wrap to discuss how the surge from the omicron variant has been creating havoc in the air travel industry. Keyes noted that a lack of personnel from pilots to gate agents had been exacerbated by the coronavirus, an issue also disrupting labor markets throughout the economy. "Add to that the fact that travel has rebounded far quicker than many analysts and experts predicted, this is why I think you're seeing so many airlines caught a bit flat-footed in having to pare back the schedules they had set months ago," he said.
Barstool Sports CEO Erika Nardini joined Cheddar's Kristen Scholer to discuss plans for the future even as COVID-19 upended Barstool's sponsorship of the Arizona Bowl featuring the Boise State Broncos and the Central Michigan Chippewas due to the spreading omicron variant. "In our case as a company, coronavirus has been a big boom for us," she noted. "We've been able to create a lot of new programming, launch a lot of different personalities, and frankly take share from traditional media, and that's what we've done the entire pandemic." While she admitted to taking a hit on the canceled Bowl game, live events aren't completely off the table for Barstool in 2022. Nardini also talked about potential sports betting expansion following its partnership with Penn National Gaming.
Interest in the concept of the metaverse is heating up as more companies get on board, and Cathy Hackl, CEO of Futures Intelligence Group, a metaverse-focused consultancy, joined Cheddar to talk about trends to watch out for in 2022 and what it will take for it to be more than just a buzzword. Hackl noted that businesses likely will have to consider big technology upgrades in the upcoming year in order to keep up. "We're going to need new levels of computing power to be able to enable shared virtual experiences, both in VR but also in augmented reality," she said.
Stocks closed near session highs today amid a rebound from sell-offs fueled by fears of the Omicron COVID-19 variant. 1879 Advisors Vice Chairman Jim Bruderman joined Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss the markets' close and new economic data out today.
