The number of businesses that see a 50 percent chance or higher of a recession in 2022 has fallen from around two-thirds of respondents in October to just over half this month, according to a new survey from the National Association of Business Economics (NABE).
Businesses pointed to higher interest rates as the biggest downside risks, while identifying lower interest rates, higher labor participation and easing supply chain issues as the biggest upside risks. Overall though, recession fears remain elevated, and job growth expectations are waning.
“For the first time since 2020, more respondents expect falling rather than increased employment at their firms in the next three months," said Julia Coronado, president of NABE and founder and president of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC, in a news release. "Fewer respondents than in recent years expect their firms' capital spending to increase in the same period.”
At the same time, more firms are reporting falling profit margins.
“Wages rose at a majority of respondents’ firms in the last three months of 2022 and more firms added workers than reduced headcounts," said Carlos Herrera, business conditions survey chair at NABE and chief economist for Coca-Cola North America. "But far more firms than in the past three years reported falling profit margins.
NABE's index for profit margin expectations is now down to its lowest level since mid-2020.
Yet tempering these concerns is a widespread expectation that inflation will continue to fall.
“The panel suggests that inflation may be easing with the outlook for prices charged at its lowest reading since the October 2020 survey, overall,” said Herrera. “Materials costs have drifted down significantly since last July, and more respondents expect falling costs in the next three months.”
Joe Cecela, Dream Exchange CEO, explains how they are aiming to form the first minority-controlled company to operate an exchange in U.S. history. Watch!
A Michigan judge is putting sponges in the hands of shoplifters and ordering them to wash cars in a Walmart parking lot when spring weather arrives. Genesee County Judge Jeffrey Clothier hopes the unusual form of community service discourages people from stealing from Walmart. The judge also wants to reward shoppers with free car washes. Clothier says he began ordering “Walmart wash” sentences this week for shoplifting at the store in Grand Blanc Township. He believes 75 to 100 people eventually will be ordered to wash cars this spring. Clothier says he will be washing cars alongside them when the time comes.
The State Department had been in talks with Elon Musk’s Tesla company to buy armored electric vehicles, but the plans have been put on hold by the Trump administration after reports emerged about a potential $400 million purchase. A State Department spokesperson said the electric car company owned by Musk was the only one that expressed interest back in May 2024. The deal with Tesla was only in its planning phases but it was forecast to be the largest contract of the year. It shows how some of his wealth has come and was still expected to come from taxpayers.
At 100 years old, the Goodyear Blimp is an ageless star in the sky. The 246-foot-long airship will be in the background of the Daytona 500 — flying roughly 1,500 feet above Daytona International Speedway, actually — to celebrate its greatest anniversary tour. Even though remote camera technologies are improving regularly and changing the landscape of aerial footage, the blimp continues to carve out a niche. At Daytona, with the usual 40-car field racing around a 2½-mile superspeedway, views from the blimp aptly provide the scope of the event.
