Stocks slipped again Thursday as investors braced for more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility is once again stirring up debates over whether the U.S. economy is headed for a recession.
"Our view right now is that for the next six months the U.S. economy should be okay," said Ahmed Riesgo, chief investment officer for financial services company Insigneo.
He said the strength of the January jobs report has put downward pressure on stocks because it showed resilience in the economy that many investors interpreted as a sign that more rate hikes were coming. Recent reports showing "sticky" inflation have had a similar effect.
These trends increase the odds of a recession, he added, because the uncertainty around inflation makes it more likely the Fed will make a policy mistake.
"Our base case is not a recession," he said. "But when you look a little bit further out over a 12 month period, I think the chances of a mild recession in the United States are very elevated."
He also cited recent comments from Fed officials as evidence for this theory. The nation's top bankers have signaled they are committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent annually, while also saying hitting that goal effectively requires inducing a recession.
Seth Schachner breaks down Zootopia 2’s record-smashing debut, holiday box office trends, early 2026 Oscar contenders, and what’s next for Netflix and WBD.
Truist's Mike Skordeles unpacks earnings trends, market correction, labor force dynamics, and what a possible December rate cut could mean for all of us.
Holiday shopping heats up as big-box earnings reveal how Walmart, Target & Home Depot are navigating consumer pressure, strategy shifts and trends shaping 2025.
Thanksgiving travel is set to smash records as millions fly, drive, and ride despite FAA disruptions and economic uncertainty. Here’s what you need to know.
