JPMorgan has developed a new index to track the impact that President Trump's tweets have on the market. The so-called Volfefe Index will specifically examine how the president's tweets affect U.S. Treasury yields and comes as more and more White House policies have been announced via Trump's Twitter account.
The index's name presumably stems from Trump's infamous — and still unexplained — tweet in 2017 that included the nonsensical word "covfefe." Trump quickly deleted the post after the internet and news media erupted with speculation. In a later tweet, he urged his followers to discover the true meaning of the word.
The Volfefe Index, however, is more focused on words like "China," "Billion," "Dollars," and "Tariffs," among several others that JPMorgan analysts have determined move markets when included in a presidential tweet.
"A broad swath of assets from single-name stocks to macro products have found their price dynamics increasingly beholden to a handful of tweets from the commander in chief," JPMorgan's report on the index said.
Just last month, for instance, Trump sent markets plummeting after he announced on Twitter that the U.S. would levy tariffs on nearly all Chinese imports. Trump has also has repeatedly created volatility in the financial market after attacking the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Jerome Powell, on Twitter.
"Trade and monetary policy have become an increasing focus for the executive branch, and everything from casual sentiments to seemingly formal policy intentions have been disseminated, globally and instantaneously, via this carefully scrutinized social media platform," JPMorgan analysts found.
JPMorgan's analysis also found Trump's most significant market-moving tweets are usually posted between noon and 2:00 pm — "a time fortuitously coterminous with some of the best intraday liquidity in U.S. rates."
Analysts found, moreover, that Trump's Twitter activity has substantially increased since 2018, and has, in fact, been at its apex in recent months. The president also posted his highest volume of market-moving tweets just last month, which included tweets escalating trade tensions with China and publicly pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates.
Regardless of the topic or the type of impact a tweet has on Treasury yields, JPMorgan stressed that Trump's behavior online offers an extraordinary case study into the government's economic influence.
"Such a high volume of policy developments made available instantaneously to financial participants en masse thus provides an unprecedented look into how markets could react to the inner workings of the executive branch," the company's report stated.
Since his inauguration in 2017, Trump has tweeted over 10,000 times to his 64.1 million followers.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global, breaks down September’s CPI print and inflation trends, explaining what it means for markets.
A big-screen adaptation of the anime “Chainsaw Man” has topped the North American box office, beating a Springsteen biopic and “Black Phone 2.” The movie earned $17.25 million in the U.S. and Canada this weekend. “Black Phone 2” fell to second place with $13 million. Two new releases, the rom-com “Regretting You” and “Springsteen — Deliver Me From Nowhere,” earned $12.85 million and $9.1 million, respectively. “Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc” is based on the manga series about a demon hunter. It's another win for Sony-owned Crunchyroll, which also released a “Demon Slayer” film last month that debuted to a record $70 million.
The Federal Aviation Administration says flights departing for Los Angeles International Airport were halted briefly due to a staffing shortage at a Southern California air traffic facility. The FAA issued a temporary ground stop at one of the world’s busiest airports on Sunday morning soon after U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy predicted that travelers would see more flights delayed as the nation’s air traffic controllers work without pay during the federal government shutdown. The hold on planes taking off for LAX lasted an hour and 45 minutes and didn't appear to cause continued problems. The FAA said staffing shortages also delayed planes headed to Washington, Chicago and Newark, New Jersey on Sunday.
Boeing workers at three Midwest plants where military aircraft and weapons are developed have voted to reject the company’s latest contract offer and to continue a strike that started almost three months ago. The strike by about 3,200 machinists at the plants in the Missouri cities of St. Louis and St. Charles, and in Mascoutah, Illinois, is smaller in scale than a walkout last year by 33,000 Boeing workers who assemble commercial jetliners. The president of the International Association of Machinists says Sunday's outcome shows Boeing hasn't adequately addressed wages and retirement benefits. Boeing says Sunday's vote was close with 51% of union members opposing the revised offer.
The stunning indictment that led to the arrest of more than 30 people — including Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier and other NBA figures — has drawn new scrutiny of the booming business of sports betting in the U.S. The multibillion-dollar industry has made it easy for sports fans — and even some players — to wager on everything from the outcome of games to that of a single play with just a few taps of a cellphone. But regulating the rapidly-growing industry has proven to be a challenge. Professional sports leagues’ own role in promoting gambling has also raised eyebrows.
Tesla, the car company run by Elon Musk, reported Wednesday that it sold more vehicles in the past three months after boycotts hit hard earlier this year, but profits still fell sharply. Third-quarter earnings fell to $1.4 billion, from $2.2 billion a year earlier. Excluding charges, per share profit of 50 cents came in below analysts' estimate. Tesla shares fell 3.5% in after-hours trading. Musk said the company's robotaxi service, which is available in Austin, Texas, and San Francisco, will roll out to as many as 10 other metro areas by the end of the year.
