As the coronavirus extends beyond China, early indicators of the outbreak's full economic impact are trickling in.
One report from China Beige Book, an economic forecasting firm, which surveyed more than 1,400 companies, shows an economy reeling from shutdowns and quarantines.
"Not only has every major index that we track turned negative, but every major sector of the economy is currently in contraction territory," Shehzad Qazi, managing director of China Beige Book, told Cheddar. "This is the worst result we've seen in nine years."
Armed with the fresh data from the last two months, Qazi pushed back against the narrative that China is already bouncing back from the worst ravages of the coronavirus.
"You've got people going in and flipping on the light switch, but there isn't any work happening," he said. "Many of the employees are still stranded. They can't even get back to their job sites."
Nationwide, some 31 percent of executives reported that their firms have remained closed since the Lunar New Year holiday. Among those businesses that did open back up, 29 percent still have employees working from home, and only a third of businesses say they're functioning normally.
"Most of the Chinese economy has remained under a virtual lockdown throughout the month of February," said Qazi.
Chinese auto factories, which are tightly linked to western auto part suppliers and buyers, had higher than average firm closures with 35 percent reporting they were shut down due to the virus. The numbers were roughly the same for logistics firms.
IT manufacturers fared a bit better, with just 20 percent reporting closures — though that doesn't account for the 53 percent of management who have not returned to the office.
Right now, global firms with links to China are working down their inventories, but the economic blast radius could expand if suppliers don't get up and running before those supplies run out.
"As inventories start running thin in the U.S. or Europe and supplies are not coming out of China, we may start seeing the risk of factory shutdowns right here in the United States," Qazi said.
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