After President Trump authorized a military strike killing a top Iranian military commander, the escalating conflict sent stocks down around the world, and oil and gold prices up on the first Monday of the new year.
Brent oil prices, the international benchmark, hit the $70 mark for the first time in three months and the price of West Texas Intermediate, the American oil benchmark, reached more than $63 a barrel after the Pentagon's announcement confirming an airstrike at Baghdad's airport. Crude oil last hit the $70 mark in September after drones suspected to have been launched by Iran struck Saudi Arabian oil plants. Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq account for almost half of the world's oil reserves.
Prices are up amid a growing list of concerns after the killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani: Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz, has already threatened retaliation, and said it will no longer abide by the 2015 nuclear deal the U.S. withdrew from two years ago, and Iraq voted to expel U.S. troops. The State Department warned of a "heightened risk" of a missile attack near U.S. bases.
It is unclear how Iran will respond to Trump's unilateral move. Oanda's Jeffrey Halley noted that "a big fat dollop of geopolitical uncertainty has landed on investors desks" in a report.
But J. Jay Park, CEO of ReconAfrica, said the geopolitical uneasiness isn't, alone, enough to continue driving oil prices up. He said what may continue to drive up prices is a change in supply. Park said supply, demand, OPEC decisions and compliance, geopolitics, and public sentiment about those four items affect oil prices. Uncertainty in Iran, coupled with a change in supply or demand may change the game. Iran may choose to close the Strait of Hormuz, a move Britain has forestalled by sending the Royal Navy to help ships pass through the Strait, through which 21 percent of 2018's global petroleum liquids consumption flowed.
"If that were to happen, the sky's the limit, over $100 easily," Park told Cheddar on Monday.
With the region on edge, stocks fell in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and across European markets.
In the meantime, Park said the current crisis may not drive up oil prices further.
"In the recent past we've seen a number of conflicts, for example the suspected Iranian attack on Abqaiq in Saudia Arabia, that kind of underwhelmed in terms of the extent to which these changes affected the overall price and how long that effect lasted," he said.
Following the surprising big beat on estimates for the January jobs report, William M. Rodgers III, vice president and director of the Institute for Economic Equity at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, joined Cheddar News to break down the data. “We ended 2021 with a strong crescendo to a recovery that had taken hold, and we started 2022 in good fashion." He also discussed the dueling pressures of wage growth and inflation.
While it was a volatile week in tech as Meta experienced the biggest one-day drop in the history of the U.S. stock market, industry giant Amazon reported 40 percent growth — largely on the strength of the cloud. Dan Ives, managing director of equity research at Wedbush Securities, joined Cheddar News to break down how the e-commerce company stock managed to pop despite headwinds against its core retail business. "It's all about cloud because of sum of the parts, you could argue, amazon could be $3,500/$4,000 stock just based on cloud," he said. Ives also addressed the apparent the differing impact of Apple iOS changes on Facebook and Snapchat.
Following Ford's earnings miss, the stock price dropped despite a bullish outlook from the auto giant. Karl Brauer, an executive analyst with ISeeCars.com, joined Cheddar to break down why investors may not be sold on the carmaker because of the ongoing factor of supply constraints. "The product is not an issue. There's really good product coming from them, including the electric vehicle side, and the demand is not an issue. There's plenty of demand, but nobody really has a solid grasp on when we're going to get past the supply chain issue," said Brauer.
Image-sharing app Pinterest reported big beats on its Q4 earnings for the top and bottom lines. The social platform surprised investors after seeing a decline in users while earnings and revenue were much higher than expected.
The Labor Department's January jobs report showed 467,000 jobs were added, compared to the 150,000 that were projected, a sign that employment is continuign to return to pre-pandemic levels. Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at investment bank Stifel, joined Cheddar to break down the report, noting the big gains but adding a note of caution. "Remember, even with this morning's stellar report, we're still millions below that level that we had reached prior to the onset of COVID-19," she said." Yes, we are recapturing jobs. We still have further ground that needs to be made before we can talk about reaching that previous peak." Piegza also discussed the role of the Federal Reserve going forward as the employment figures turn more positive.
