The historically Republican District 18 of Pennsylvania could swing blue in Tuesday’s special election, according to Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor at political website Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Democratic candidate Conor Lamb is “a good fit culturally for the district,” he told Cheddar, citing Lamb’s military background and moderate views on issues like abortion and guns.
Meanwhile, Republican candidate Rick Saccone “is a standard economic conservative,” said Kondik, which doesn’t necessarily sit well with the largely blue-collar residents of the district.
The race in the 18th District is shaping up as a potential bellwether for the midterm elections in November. President Trump carried the district by 20 points in 2016, and a Democratic win there would be a huge blow to him and to the GOP.
As a sign of how critical the party and the White House view the race, Trump will travel to the district on Saturday for a Saccone campaign rally. Friday afternoon, the president tweeted: Look forward to being in Pennsylvania tomorrow in support of Rick @Saccone4PA18. Big crowd expected in Moon Township. Vote Rick and see you there! #MAGA
Several weeks ago, Ivanka Trump, the president’s daughter campaigned with Saccone, and on Monday, Donald Trump Jr. will campaign with the Republican.
To regain control of the house, Democrats need to win 24 seats now held by the GOP. And many political experts believe the party has a good chance, particularly given the historic tendency of the party that controls the White House to lose seats in Congress during the midterms.
“Generally, the party that holds the White House pays a penalty down the ballot, particularly in special elections like we’re seeing in Pennsylvania on Tuesday,” Kondik said.
“Turnout is always significantly lower than a presidential election,” explained Kondik. “The out-party is sometimes more motivated to show up to vote.” On top of that, President Trump’s overall approval rating is hovering at a meager 40 percent.
Kondik also pointed out that the district, largely composed of the southern suburbs of Pittsburgh, has a demographic makeup that veers from Trump’s base.
Voters generally have higher-than-average incomes and higher-than-average educational attainment. “It’s a Trump district, but it’s also full of voters who are sort of skeptical of Trump even though they voted for him.”
The special election was called after Rep. Patrick Murphy resigned amid reports that he had encouraged his lover to have an abortion despite his strong anti-abortion stance.
“It’s a true toss up, which is kind of crazy in and of itself,” said Kondik.
For the full interview, [click here](https://cheddar.com/videos/pennsylvanias-special-election-gives-pollsters-a-sneak-peak-into-the-2018-midterms).
A public petition for the British government not to go through with Brexit gained so many signatures that the Parliament website crashed on Thursday.
There's a phenomenon on the internet called the "Streisand Effect," whereby a person's attempt to suppress information ends up widely publicizing that very same information. It was named after a situation an incident when Barbra Streisand tried to keep images of her Malibu mansion off the web and inadvertently drew massive amounts of attention to it. And it's why Devin Nunes' mom was trending on Twitter Tuesday morning.
The Democratic National Committee stands by its decision not to allow Fox News to host a Democratic primary debate in the 2020 presidential election, a party official told Cheddar on Thursday. "Our role at the DNC is to make sure we have a fair process and we do not believe Fox News can have a fair debate,” the DNC communications director Xochitl Hinojosa said.
In a presidential field that's growing more crowded by the day, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is looking to stand out by making foreign policy central to her campaign while her fellow Democratic candidates tussle over progressive moonshots like the Green New Deal or Medicare for All. At a campaign event in Concord, N.H., during the Presidents Day weekend, Cheddar's J.D. Durkin spoke with Gabbard, who said her agenda is based on her belief that the U.S. is "addicted" to regime-change wars.
These are the headlines you Need 2 Know for Tuesday, Feb. 19, 2019.
While New York City is mired in finger-pointing over the loss of Amazon's HQ2, Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey urges the company to reconsider the bid that Newark made.
According to House Ways and Means Committee Member Judy Chu, the GOP "made false claims" about the tax bill that passed in December of 2017 and is taking effect this tax season. "They said things like the American public would get on the average a $4,000 per person increase. Well, that is certainly not the case," Chu, a California Democrat, told Cheddar.
Bradley Tusk, the founder and CEO of Tusk Strategies and former campaign manager of Mayor Michael Bloomberg, knows exactly why Amazon's HQ2 plans in New York City fell apart. "It's not that we didn't get it because of some geopolitical economic trend or something out of our control. We didn't get it because our own politicians and Amazon themselves were too incompetent and too arrogant and too tone deaf to get it right," Tusk told Cheddar.
Amazon's blog post announcing it will pull the plug on its New York City headquarters is nothing but a bluff to bring politicians back to the negotiating table, said D.A. Davidson Analyst Tom Forte. "Absolutely Amazon's bluffing," Forte told Cheddar Friday.
From Wall Street to Silicon Valley, these are the top stories that moved markets and had investors, business leaders, and entrepreneurs talking this week on Cheddar.
