*By Carlo Versano*
The bitter midterm election season is coming down ー as it always does ー to who turns out to vote. With control of both chambers of Congress and dozens of statehouses up for grabs on Tuesday, and a polarizing president at the center of it all, the 2018 midterm election will be seen as one of the most consequential in modern U.S. history.
Democrats hope that Trump's unpopularity will drive voters to the polls and, in so doing, repudiate his agenda and divisive style of leadership. Republicans are counting on a booming economy to counterbalance the conventional midterm wisdom that the party in power loses seats.
That focus on the economy ー historically low unemployment, a bull market, and sustained wage growth ー would have been easy to miss during the last leg of the campaign season, as Trump and his surrogates went all-in on a hard-line immigration message.
Nick Givas, a reporter with The Daily Caller, said that the economy was the GOP's best bet for holding off Democratic gains: "If there's one thing voters can point to that's tangible, it's more jobs, it's more money in their wallet," he said.
Trump's incendiary rhetoric, particularly on the subject of immigration, is a callback to the very strategy that got him elected. "Immigration also helped him rise in the polls as a presidential candidate," Givas said. "He's going back to his bread and butter here" and making a bet that getting his base "hot and bothered" will drive turnout.
But that strategy is exactly what mobilizes Democrats to vote, as noted by the DCCC's Molly Mitchell in an earlier interview on Cheddar. "We've built the largest battlefield for Democrats in over a decade, and we've recruited incredible candidates across the country," she said.
The DCCC counts 80 House districts in play nationwide, 71 of which are Republican-held. Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take the House.
The Senate map remains favorable for the GOP, and the chalk bet is that the party will keep control of that chamber, but lose the House. Meanwhile, 36 governorships (26 of which are held by Republicans) will also be decided, with Democrats expected to make inroads in red states.
Then, of course, there are the ballot initiatives that have been largely overshadowed by so many contentious races. From marijuana legalization to gas taxes to minimum wage, voters in 37 states have 155 ballot propositions in front of them. Wall Street will be particularly attuned to whether voters choose to legalize pot for recreational use (Michigan, North Dakota) or medical use (Missouri, Utah) and whether minimum wage hikes (Arkansas, Missouri) can get passed in an era of soaring corporate profits.
With so much at stake and so much attention being paid, it will come down to turnout ー a worry for Democrats in the East, which is under widespread threat of severe weather. Bad weather on Election Day is widely believed to favor Republicans ー as the people most likely to stay home tend to be Democrats.
The first polls close at 6 p.m. ET in parts of Kentucky and Indiana, and the "first test of what kind of night this going to be" will come when polls close at 7 p.m. in Virginia, according to Reid Epstein, political reporter at The Wall Street Journal. He's keeping an eye on VA-7, the district outside Richmond. If incumbent GOP Rep. Dave Brat falls early, that will bode well portend good things for Democrats.
Epstein cautioned against gleaning too much from exit polling aside from the composition of a given electorate. After all, Democrats who took exit polls as gospel in 2016 went to bed thinking they would wake up to President Hillary Clinton.
As the night progresses and the results roll in, California could throw a wrench into the results things. The massive state, home to multiple swing districts and notoriously slow to tabulate results, allows mail-in ballots through Election Day, meaning if control of the House is riding on the Golden State, we may not know right away. Polls there close at 11 p.m. ET.
"We may all be sitting and watching the mail get delivered in Santa Ana and Irvine over the course of the next few days," Epstein cautioned.
Both he and Givas, and the Daily Caller reporter, agreed on one thing:
"It's going to be a long night."
For full interview [click here](https://cheddar.com/videos/voters-head-to-the-polls-on-election-day).
Going into election day on Tuesday, many of us had an inkling it might not be a great day for Democrats. History tells us the president's party tends to lose congressional seats, governorships and state legislature seats in off-year and midterm elections. Tuesday turned out to be a big wake-up call for democrats. Not only did Terry McAuliffe lose in the Virginia governor's race, Gov. Phil Murphy won re-election by an incredibly slim margin. Both races saw continued Democratic losses in rural areas and a shift of suburban voters back to the GOP. Liz Landers, chief political correspondent at Vice News, joins Cheddar Politics to discuss.
Week one of UN climate summit is coming to an end, world leaders made a number of promises to save the planet. President Biden attended the first two days of the meeting.
Alan Neuhauser, vice president of Silverline Communications, joined Cheddar Politics to talk more about the pledges that came out from the summit and their significance.
It's been a busy week for the Supreme Court. It heard arguments on three of the most watched cases in the docket for this term. The court heard arguments in two cases challenging the Texas abortion law on Monday - one filed by abortion providers and the other by the justice department. Instead of weighing in on the constitutionality of the matter itself, justices focused on the unusual structure of the law that enables citizens to enforce the law, not the state government.
On Wednesday, the court heard arguments in the biggest Second Amendment case in more than a decade. The dispute is over a New York gun law that requires people seeking a license to carry a handgun in public to show a "proper cause." The challengers in this case claim the law inhibits their constitutional Second Amendment rights.
Amy Howe, co-founder of SCOTUSBlog, joined Cheddar Politics to break the cases down.
This is the first installment of Cheddar Changemakers, where we spotlight young activists making a difference in the world and speaking up on issues regarding mental health, voting, and climate change.
Republicans are considered, and often act like, the party opposed to action on climate change. They've made a point of fighting even modest regulations on businesses related to stemming the worst effects of climate change. But Republicans aren't a monolith on climate change, and our next guest reminds us that "conservation" and "conservative" have the same word root.
Quill Robinson, VP of government affairs at the American Conservation Coalition, joins Cheddar Politics to discuss.
The mayor of Portland, Oregon, Ted Wheeler joined Cheddar News Wrap to discuss his plans to get an increase in the city's police budget for more personnel, changes to public safety response, and more body cameras. The Democratic mayor addressed the growth in violent crimes amid the pandemic, but noted the need for officers who take their roles seriously. We want officers who understand that policing is an important responsibility, it's a high calling," he said. "We also want a police bureau that is accountable and responsible to the public it serves."
More American tech companies continue to pull their businesses out of China as the Communist Party cracks down on firms — both foreign and domestic. Yahoo and Fortnite have become the latest companies to withdraw from the country, and the withdrawals come just days after Microsoft announced it would take LinkedIn offline. Shehzad Qazi, managing director at China Beige Book International, joined Cheddar to provide some insight into how the crackdowns in China would also impact the tech companies at home in the United States.
A new report out by the Center for Countering Digital Hate shows how just ten publishers are responsible for the bulk of climate change misinformation on social media--and companies like Facebook and Google are making money off them. Imran Ahmed, CEO of the Center for Countering Digital Hate, joined Cheddar to discuss.
'The Good Liars' are Jason Selvig and Davram Stiefler, a comedy duo that's been shaking up the political world for years. They're out with a new mockumentary, 'The Supporters,' following the 2020 election. Jason Selvig & Davram Stiefler, Stunt Comedians and creators of 'The Good Liars' joined Cheddar News to discuss.
