WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans’ outlook on the economy improved modestly in November, lifted by expectations for lower inflation and more hiring.
The Conference Board, a business research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index ticked up to 111.7 from 109.6 in October. The small increase followed a big gain in October.
Rising consumer confidence suggests Americans may spend more in the coming months, which would help boost economic growth. Yet Americans have been spending at a healthy clip for much of the past two years even as confidence measures have been low, a sign that sentiment surveys may not be as useful a guide to the economy's direction as they were in the past.
The uptick comes after President-elect Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election. The Conference Board doesn't break out its responses by party, but another measure of consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan showed that optimism about the economy jumped among Republicans after the election.
In the Conference Board's report, the proportion of Americans who anticipate a recession in the next 12 months fell to the lowest level since the group first began asking the question in July 2022. And consumers' optimism about future hiring rose to its highest level in nearly three years.
The survey found that Americans' expectations for future inflation fell to its lowest level since March 2020, nearly a year before consumer prices began rising quickly. When asked about their hopes for 2025, “consumers overwhelmingly selected higher prices as their top concern and lower prices as their top wish for the new year,” the Conference Board said.
The report comes just hours after President-elect Donald Trump said he would impose stiff 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% on imports from China. Economists and some retailers warn that such duties, if enacted, would be inflationary.
“Households for now seem to have their heads in the sand about the potential uplifts to consumer prices from tariffs and deportations, or they think Trump wasn’t serious about his intentions during the campaign,” Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a client note.
The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by a quarter-point Wednesday and projected it would do so twice more this year as concern grows at the central bank about the health of the nation’s labor market. The move is the Fed’s first cut since December and lowered its short-term rate to about 4.1%, down from 4.3%. Fed officials, led by Chair Jerome Powell, had kept their rate unchanged this year as they evaluated the impact of tariffs, tighter immigration enforcement, and other Trump administration policies on inflation and the economy. The only dissenter was Stephen Miran, the recent Trump-appointee.
After a late-night vote and last-minute ruling, the Federal Reserve began a key meeting on interest rate policy Tuesday with both a new Trump administration appointee and an official the White House has targeted for removal.
Wall Street is heading for more records.
Stocks nudged higher ahead of a week with several data reports that could dictate by how much or even whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its next meeting in a week.
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The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage slipped this week to its lowest level in 10 months, but remains close to where it’s been in recent weeks. The long-term rate eased to 6.56% from 6.58% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, the rate averaged 6.35%. Elevated mortgage rates have kept the U.S. housing market in a slump since early 2022, when rates began climbing from pandemic lows. The recent downward trend bodes well for prospective homebuyers who have been held back by stubbornly high home financing costs, but it has yet to spur a turnaround for home sales.
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Americans’ view of the U.S. economy declined modestly in August as anxiety over a weakening job market grew for the eighth straight month. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index ticked down by1.3 points to 97.4 in August, down from July’s 98.7, but in the same narrow range of the past three months. A measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income, business conditions and the job market fell by 1.2 points to 74.8, remaining significantly below 80, the marker that can signal a recession ahead. Consumers’ assessments of their current economic situation also fell modestly, to 131.2 in August from 132.8 in July.
