President Trump on Wednesday reversed his position on cutting payroll taxes to spur economic growth, telling reporters on the White House lawn that "we don't need it."
The reversal comes after days of mixed messages from the administration. The White House had first denied that it was considering a cut to payroll taxes since the economy, top officials claimed, was sound. However, on Tuesday, Trump said "payroll tax is something that we think about and a lot of people would like to see that."
In another about-face on Wednesday, Trump announced that he is "not looking at a tax cut now." The remarks follow a growing number of economists who have publicly warned that a recession in the U.S. is on the horizon.
"I don't think [Trump] is particularly concerned if what he says one day disagrees with what his advisors said the day before," said Brian Brenberg, the chair of the Program in Business and Finance at The King's College. "It's classic message testing by the president" to see how the media and markets react.
Recession concerns largely emerged last week after the U.S. Treasury's yield curve inverted; in other words, short-term investments in government bonds are now expected to pay more than long-term ones. The inversion — the first since the economic collapse of 2007-2008 — sent the markets plummeting.
A survey released this week by the National Association for Business Economics also found that 74 percent of U.S. economists believe the country will go into a recession by 2021.
"We don't need [a payroll tax cut]. We have a strong economy," Trump said Wednesday.
Payroll taxes, which apply to both employers and employees, are ubiquitous in the U.S. economy and fund major federal programs like social security and medicare. The taxes were lowered as part of the economic stimulus package following the Great Recession a decade ago, and the cut was extended by President Obama in 2012. Republicans initially opposed the cut at the time, citing concern over the federal deficit.
Yet today, many economists caution against cutting payroll taxes given the country's historically low unemployment, the current strain on social security spending, and the government's growing deficit, which has ballooned under Trump following policies like the 2017 tax cuts.
"Payroll taxes are a significant source of government revenue, and payroll tax cuts have been found to have little to no impact on long-term economic growth," the Tax Foundation said on Twitter.
On Wednesday, moreover, the Congressional Budget Office said that the federal budget deficit is accelerating faster than expected. The agency updated its deficit forecast to $960 billion in 2019 and over $1 trillion in 2020.
Cutting payroll taxes, experts say, will also not address the core concerns of investors: tariffs and trade.
"Most investors are unified in believing the only thing that's really going to meaningfully change the conversation around recession is doing something on trade," Brenberg said, noting that Trump's remarks on Tuesday did little to boost the markets.
Adam Michel, a tax policy analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said that "high tariffs and trade uncertainty" were the main impediments to economic progress. "If the administration wants to boost the economy, they should start there," he said.
Private equity firms are taking a big interest in investing in NBA teams, the sports league showing the highest ROI over the last two decades according to Sportico, Forbes, and PitchBook. Wylie Fernyhough, lead analys for private equity at PitchBook joined Cheddar News to discuss the way firms are looking to get a piece of the action on the court. “There’s a certain amount of rarity, with these," Fernyhough said. "They’re not exactly printing new NBA franchises."
In efforts to help support black-owned brands. Ulta Beauty says it will make a commitment to not only give these brand shelf space but also help them navigate the ins and outs of growing a business. Last week, the beauty retailer announced in order to reach those goals, the company will spend $50 million on diversity and inclusion programs, including an accelerated program to mentor entrepreneurs of color. CEO of Ulta Beauty, Dave Kimbell, joined Cheddar to discuss more.
Inflation remains hot as the January PPI has increased by 1 percent, twice what analysts had been expecting with a jump of 9.7 over the year. Beth Ann Bovino, the U.S. chief economist, for S&P Global Ratings, joined Cheddar News to discuss the rapid pace of inflation alongside higher wages, predicting the Federal Reserve will act quickly and forcefully this year. "They haven't changed their forecast, yet, that's gonna come out soon. But we expect that a March rate hike is basically pretty much baked in the cake," she said. "We think six rate hikes in total for 2022."
For black history month, Cheddar is highlighting black business leaders who are driving the need for representation forward. On February 10, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce hosted an event called 'Developing the Black-Owned Business Ecosystem.' The virtual event was organized under the lobbying group's two initiatives -- the Equality of Opportunity Initiative, and the Coalition to Back Black Businesses. The event highlighted the developments needed to develop more black-owned businesses in the U.S. Dr. Anthony Wilbon, Dean of the School of Business at Howard University, joined Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss his experience as a speaker at the event.
Black spending power reached a record $1.6 Trillion in a 2021 report from the University of Georgia Selig Center for Economic Growth. Ayesha Selden, certified financial planner, breaks down why real estate is the key to closing the racial wealth gap and how Black Americans are using social media to improve financial literacy. "If we look at home ownership as being a primary driver of wealth, when you look at the equity that Americans have in their homes, that equity can be used to buy additional assets like other rental properties. That equity can be used to educate our children," Selden said, noting that lower rates of home ownership meant Black Americans tend to incur more debt on average for their student loans.
A new survey from Etoro suggests that talking crypto might actually help Americans on the dating scene find love...or at least land another date. The survey found that 74% of respondents would be more interested in going on a second date with a person that pays the bill in Bitcoin. Callie Cox, Etoro's U.S. investment analyst, joined Cheddar News to discuss.
