American flags fly outside the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, Sept. 23, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer, File)
By Stan Choe
A frigid February for Wall Street closed out with more losses on Tuesday.
The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to lock in a loss of 2.6% for the month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 232 points, or 0.7%, while the Nasdaq composite slipped 0.1%. Both also sank over the month.
After a strong start to the year bolstered by hopes that inflation was on the way down, Wall Street shifted into reverse in February. A stream of data showed inflation and the overall economy are remaining more resilient than expected. That’s forced investors to raise their forecasts for how high the Federal Reserve will take interest rates and how long it will keep them there.
High rates can drive down inflation, but they also raise the risk of a recession down the line because they hurt the economy. They also drag on prices for stocks and other investments.
After earlier this year hoping that the Fed could soon pause its aggressive hikes to interest rates, and maybe even begin cutting them late this year, traders have come around to believe the Fed’s long insistence that it plans to take rates higher for longer to ensure the job is done on inflation.
The Fed has said it wants rates to climb to a “sufficiently restrictive” level where the economy slows enough to get inflation down to its 2% goal.
“Everything is sort of churning,” said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments. “Right now, the economy is doing fairly well, but earnings estimates for 2023 for the S&P 500 are continuing to drift lower. So you’re still moving in a softening direction. It’s just: How close do you get to the ground?”
He has raised his forecast for how high the Fed will ultimately raise rates, but he also said it’s difficult to feel a great amount of certainty given all the push and pull.
“What everyone’s hoping for is that they are restrictive but not destructive,” Martin said of the Fed and rate hikes. “Where we end up, there’s just a wide range of outcomes.”
Many investors now see the Fed hiking its key overnight interest rate up to at least 5.25%, if not higher, and keeping it there through the end of the year. The Fed’s rate is currently set in a range of 4.50% to 4.75% after starting last year at virtually zero.
The heightened expectations for rates sent yields jumping in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury held steady at 3.92% Tuesday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other loans that shape the economy’s health, and still near its highest level since November.
The two-year yield, which moves more on expectations for Fed action, ticked up to 4.81% from 4.78%. It’s near its highest level since 2007.
Worries about rates have caused the S&P 500’s gain for the year to more than halve. It was up as much as 8.9% in early February, the day before a report showed U.S. employers hired nearly a third of a million more people in January than expected.
Such strength is good news for the economy and calms fears about a recession hitting imminently. But the Fed worries it could also feed into upward pressure on inflation. Not only are jobs still plentiful, U.S. households also increased their spending at stores and elsewhere in January.
Now the S&P 500 is hanging onto a gain of 3.4% for the year.
Reports on the economy released Tuesday showed some slight cracks. One said that confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell in February. Another said that manufacturing in the Chicago region weakened by more than expected.
All the worries have come across a backdrop of falling earnings for big corporations. S&P 500 companies are in the midst of reporting their first decline in profits from year-earlier levels since 2020, when the pandemic was choking the economy, according to FactSet.
Most companies have already reported their results for the last three months of 2022, but several big-name retailers are still on the schedule for this week.
Among them was Target, which on Tuesday reported better profit and revenue than expected for the latest quarter. But it also echoed some other retailers in giving a cautious forecast for upcoming results as U.S. households contend with still-high inflation. Its stock rose 1%.
On the losing end was Norwegian Cruise Line. It tumbled 10.2% after reporting a bigger loss for the latest quarter than expected. It also gave profit forecasts for the upcoming quarter and year that fell short of Wall Street's.
All told, the S&P 500 fell 12.09 points to 3,970.15. The Dow fell 232.39 to 32,656.70, and the Nasdaq dropped 11.44 to 11,455.54.
——
AP Business Writers Elaine Kurtenbach and Matt Ott contributed.
Private equity firms in 2021 spent $401.71 billion in U.S. tech investments — doubling 2020's level of $196.34 billion. As tech becomes increasingly interwoven into our lives amid the pandemic, investors grow bullish on the sector, especially software-as-a-service companies. How will 2022 stack up to 2021, and is there potential for parts of the tech sector to sink this year? John Jannarone, Editor in Chief at IPO-Edge, joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss 2021's record year of deals, how potential interest rate hikes will impact tech investments in 2022, the fastest-growing IPOs, and more.
Bed Bath & Beyond delivered disappointing fiscal third-quarter results for 2022. Shares initially dove more than 9% in premarket trading on the news but finished the day up nearly 8%. Bed Bath & Beyond has been a meme-stock target for online investors in the past -- so was meme-stock mania a factor in the recent stock movement for the company? Jaime Rogozinski, the founder of the subreddit WallStreetBets, joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell for more, as his forum helped spark the meme stock phenomena. He also discussed some decentralized finance services and trends for the retail investor to watch for in 2022.
College athletes scored big in 2021 when they were finally allowed to begin earning money based off of their name, image, and likeness, known as NIL. But how can young athletes best manage their money so they can set themselves up for years of success? Nicole Pullen Ross, Head of Goldman Sachs Sports and Entertainment Solutions, joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss why financial management for college athletes is important, common pitfalls they could run into, and more.
December's jobs report was weaker than expected: the economy only added 199,000 nonfarm payrolls compared to an estimate of 422,000. However, the unemployment rate hit a new pandemic-era low of 3.9%, beating expectations. One thing to consider is the fact that the impact of the COVID-19 omicron variant is not factored into these results as the read is taken around the middle of the month. So — how might the variant impact job reports over the next few months? Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss December's jobs numbers, his 2022 labor market outlook, how COVID-19 will continue to impact the labor market, and more.
Digital medical care provider Pear Therapeutics rang the closing bell on the Nasdaq Friday and President and CEO Dr. Corey McCann, joined Cheddar to talk about how the company plans to grow the business of software-based therapeutics and how the first FDA authorized prescription digital therapeutics company will go about treating illnesses like insomnia and addiction. "These really are pieces of software. In many cases, they're apps and in the cases of our addiction products, these are based on something called cognitive behavioral therapy or CBT," he said. "These products change the patient's brain circuitry to help them be abstinent, to help them stay in treatment, and that's exactly what we see in randomized clinical trials and that's what we see in the real world." He also addressed the ongoing mental health crises brought on by the pandemic. **copy updated to remove IPO information as Pear Therapeutics went public in December**
Gamestop shares were up on The Wall Street Journal report that the video game retail company plans to enter the NFT and crypto space. Adam Hollander, the founder of Hungry Wolves NFT, joined Cheddar to break down how it could be a lifeline for the struggling meme stock darling. "They're not resigning themselves to becoming the next Blockbuster story, and so while people may not be buying as many video games in a retail environment anymore, NFTs, in particular, people are starting to expect more gaming utility on the backend — at least for a variety of projects — and I personally think its a very smart move for them to do this," Hollander told Cheddar.
On Saturday, New York will join neighboring New Jersey and Connecticut in authorizing mobile sports betting. Matt Kalish, president and co-founder of Draftkings North America, joined Cheddar to talk about the landmark change that is estimated to rake in $500 million in annual tax revenue on a potential billion-dollar market. Kalish also addressed the possibility that legalized sports betting in the Empire State could cannibalize his company's revenues in the bordering states. "It's pretty inconvenient, you know, to go across the border to make a bet. And people were doing it, but I think it really stifled a lot of the opportunity," he said. "So while there's some of that going on, I think really a tremendous amount, like a giant percent, of New York will be very incremental."
James Tattersall, director of sales and marketing for Lake Nona Wave Hotel, talks about the hotel's initiatives to foster diversity and how these amenities champion inclusivity in the Orlando area.
Desmond Howard, former NFL wide receiver and Modelo college football playoff ambassador, joins Cheddar News to talk about the Modelo sweepstakes honoring the 30th anniversary of his iconic punt return.
Satoshi Island is looking to become the world's first blockchain-driven economy. James Law, the chief architect of the planned private community, joined Cheddar to discuss the vision for the potential crypto capital of the world and how it will be brought to life. For people looking to live on the island, Law said they will be able to purchase land and homes and even design their own dwellings both in real life and via the metaverse. "Satoshi Island has already been digitally scanned. We have an absolute digital twin already in our metaverse," he said. Citizenship applications are expected to be launched via NFTs, he told Cheddar.
