In this March 25, 2020 file photo, a closed sign hangs in the window of a shop in Portsmouth, N.H., due to coronavirus concerns. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa, File)
Stocks swung back down Wednesday after more signs piled up of the economic damage being caused by the coronavirus outbreak.
Markets have been stuck cycling between fear and budding optimism in recent weeks as investors try to guess how long and deep the looming recession will be, with the switch often flipping overnight or even within the same day. Economists have been slashing their forecasts in preparation for what they say may be the worst downturn since the Great Depression, but several reports that came out Wednesday were even more dismal than expected.
Retail sales sank a record 8.7% last month as lockdowns around the country to slow the spread of the virus closed stores and kept people at home. A separate survey of business conditions for manufacturers in New York state plunged to its lowest level in history, by a wide margin. Industrial production across the country also failed to meet economists’ already low expectations.
Stocks around the world and Treasury yields were already down in early Wednesday trading, and their drops accelerated after the release of the reports. Lower yields are a sign that demand for relatively safe investments like U.S. government bonds is increasing.
The S&P 500 was down 2.4% after the first half-hour of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 494 points, or 2.1%, to 23,455, and the Nasdaq was down 1.9%.
Energy stocks took the sharpest losses after oil prices plunged to another 18-year low. Those in the S&P 500 index fell 5.8%.
Demand for oil around the world will fall this year by a record amount, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday. Benchmark U.S. crude touched its lowest price since 2002 before recovering slightly to $20.14 a barrel, little changed from a day earlier. Brent crude, the international standard, fell $1.27 to $28.30.
Earlier, the International Monetary Fund said this year's global economic output will shrink by 3%, a bigger loss than 2009's 0.1% decline during the financial crisis. That was a sharp reversal from the Fund's January forecast of 3.3% growth before the virus prompted governments to shut down factories, travel and other industries.
“The IMF forecast a deep economic winter," said Hayaki Narita of Mizuho Bank in a report. Narita said.
In Europe, London's FTSE 100 lost 2.5%, and the DAX in Frankfurt declined 3.2%. The CAC 40 in France retreated 2.9% to 4,437. The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo declined 0.5%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was off 1.2%.
Investors are focusing on how and when authorities may begin to ease business shutdowns and limits on people’s movements imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The S&P 500 had jumped 3.1% just a day earlier in hopes that the outbreak was leveling off in some hotspots and could lead to parts of the economy opening back up.
U.S. President Donald Trump has been discussing how to roll back federal social distancing recommendations. U.S. governors are collaborating on plans to reopen their economies in what is likely to be a gradual process to prevent the coronavirus from rebounding.
China has reopened factories, shops and other businesses after declaring victory over the outbreak but forecasters say it will take months for industries to return to normal output, while exporters will face depressed global demand.
Jared Madfes, Partner at Tribe Capital, joins Cheddar's Closing Bell, where he says crypto investors should continue to focus on the long-term despite the recent price boost in the hours following Wednesday's Fed decision.
Mobile bill payment application Papaya recently raised $50 million in a series B round led by Bessemer Venture Partners.
Papaya lets users take a photo of any bill, and the app's AI-powered 'bill understanding technology' pays the bill in seconds. The company says its goal is to help people spend more time on things that matter, by making bill-paying as painless and quick as possible. Papaya CEO and co-founder Patrick Kann joined Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss.
Markets jumped on the Federal Reserve's announcement it would speed up its tapering timeline and institute three rate hikes in 2022 — but that was before the COVID-19 omicron variant seemed to be a threat. This announcement also comes as it took the central bank a number of weeks to recognize that inflation does not seem to be transitory as consumers feel price pressure across the board. Bill Adams, senior economist at PNC, joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss the Fed's moves, how the ongoing pandemic could continue to impact the economy, the Fed's dual mandate, and more.
Delta Air Lines CFO Dan Janki joined Cheddar's Kristen Scholer to talk about the airline's 2022 outlook on its Capital Markets Day as the travel industry recovers from pandemic disruptions. The airline projects a return to profitability next year despite the emergence of the omicron variant during the peak holiday season. Janki said that there had been no impact on domestic travel as of yet, but the company is remaining vigilant for any change. He did note that there had been some international fallout as countries implemented travel restrictions.
Tom Shannon, Bowlero CEO, joined Cheddar to discuss the decision to bring the company to the New York Stock Exchange via a SPAC merger with Isos Acquisition Corporation. Shannon said one of the goals of the public offering is to expand operations internationally, noting that Bowlero has the potential to reach worldwide markets due to the sport's popularity. "Bowling is a global market, and I'll give you an example. In South Korea, there are three million league bowlers and 1,200 bowling centers in South Korea alone," he said.
If you're looking for a date, 2022 might be your year. Online dating platform Bumble is buzzing with dating predictions from its latest survey. Shan Boodram, sex and relationships expert at Bumble, joined Cheddar to discuss some of the findings and what people can expect from the future dating landscape. Some of the results showed that public displays of affection are back on the rise as more people get vaccinated and that more users are opting for alcohol-free first dates. She also explained the trend of "explori-dating," a way that users are attempting to get out of their comfort zone. "People are willing to date outside of their city to get to that," she said.
Anthony Martini, Chief Music Officer of Slip.stream, and Jesse Korwin, CMO of Slip.stream, talk about the challenges creators have uploading music on Twitch and how 'Slip.stream' prioritizes artists by streamlining the licensing process.
Cheddar is looking back at the 12 biggest buzzwords of the year leading up to Christmas. The seventh term in the countdown is Transitory. Definition: (adjective) of brief gratification, not permanent.
More businesses are requiring workers to return to the office, but there is concern that many employees in the middle class, especially women and people of color, need remote work options for reasons including childcare and financial security. Joan Williams, director of the Center for WorkLife Law at the University of California, joined Cheddar to discuss why office mandates could be detrimental to the middle class. She noted that while companies claim a return to offices would help foster more collaboration and efficiency, reports show that they are successfully able to do their jobs from home.
Fresh Vine Wine, a maker of low-carb, low-calorie, and gluten-free wines, made its public debut on the NYSE. Celeb do-owners Nina Dobrev and Julianne Hough, alongside CEO Janelle Anderson, joined Cheddar's Azia Celestino to talk about their partnership, the decision to launch an IPO, and tout the healthy lifestyle market their product is going for.
