In this March 25, 2020 file photo, a closed sign hangs in the window of a shop in Portsmouth, N.H., due to coronavirus concerns. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa, File)
Stocks swung back down Wednesday after more signs piled up of the economic damage being caused by the coronavirus outbreak.
Markets have been stuck cycling between fear and budding optimism in recent weeks as investors try to guess how long and deep the looming recession will be, with the switch often flipping overnight or even within the same day. Economists have been slashing their forecasts in preparation for what they say may be the worst downturn since the Great Depression, but several reports that came out Wednesday were even more dismal than expected.
Retail sales sank a record 8.7% last month as lockdowns around the country to slow the spread of the virus closed stores and kept people at home. A separate survey of business conditions for manufacturers in New York state plunged to its lowest level in history, by a wide margin. Industrial production across the country also failed to meet economists’ already low expectations.
Stocks around the world and Treasury yields were already down in early Wednesday trading, and their drops accelerated after the release of the reports. Lower yields are a sign that demand for relatively safe investments like U.S. government bonds is increasing.
The S&P 500 was down 2.4% after the first half-hour of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 494 points, or 2.1%, to 23,455, and the Nasdaq was down 1.9%.
Energy stocks took the sharpest losses after oil prices plunged to another 18-year low. Those in the S&P 500 index fell 5.8%.
Demand for oil around the world will fall this year by a record amount, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday. Benchmark U.S. crude touched its lowest price since 2002 before recovering slightly to $20.14 a barrel, little changed from a day earlier. Brent crude, the international standard, fell $1.27 to $28.30.
Earlier, the International Monetary Fund said this year's global economic output will shrink by 3%, a bigger loss than 2009's 0.1% decline during the financial crisis. That was a sharp reversal from the Fund's January forecast of 3.3% growth before the virus prompted governments to shut down factories, travel and other industries.
“The IMF forecast a deep economic winter," said Hayaki Narita of Mizuho Bank in a report. Narita said.
In Europe, London's FTSE 100 lost 2.5%, and the DAX in Frankfurt declined 3.2%. The CAC 40 in France retreated 2.9% to 4,437. The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo declined 0.5%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was off 1.2%.
Investors are focusing on how and when authorities may begin to ease business shutdowns and limits on people’s movements imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The S&P 500 had jumped 3.1% just a day earlier in hopes that the outbreak was leveling off in some hotspots and could lead to parts of the economy opening back up.
U.S. President Donald Trump has been discussing how to roll back federal social distancing recommendations. U.S. governors are collaborating on plans to reopen their economies in what is likely to be a gradual process to prevent the coronavirus from rebounding.
China has reopened factories, shops and other businesses after declaring victory over the outbreak but forecasters say it will take months for industries to return to normal output, while exporters will face depressed global demand.
Jim Worden, Chief Investment Officer at Wealth Consulting Group, joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell, where he says the period between Christmas and New Year's is difficult to predict due to a lack of institutional volume, with the Omicron variant adding even more uncertainty on Wall Street.
Prices at the pump this year reached a seven-year high, and a new forecast from GasBuddy shared with CNN predicts that gas prices will only continue to rise in 2022 and that the national average could even reach $4.00 a gallon; however, analysts at GasBuddy say anything could happen when it comes to gas prices in the future, as the pandemic has made it difficult to make any predictions about the economy. Consumer Energy Alliance federal policy advisor Michael Zehr joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss.
The record-breaking success of "Squid Game" on Netflix has many media companies competing to produce, stream, and invest in new content from South Korea. Netflix has spent half a billion dollars on developing Korean content this year, and other streaming services are taking note. Seth Schachner, managing director at StratAmericas and digital business executive, joins Cheddar News to discuss.
Airlines had to ground 2,500 flights in the U.S. on Tuesday, with bad weather and workers out with COVID-19 blamed as the main culprits. Scott Keyes, founder of ScottsCheapFlights.com and author of "Take More Vacations," joined Cheddar News Wrap to discuss how the surge from the omicron variant has been creating havoc in the air travel industry. Keyes noted that a lack of personnel from pilots to gate agents had been exacerbated by the coronavirus, an issue also disrupting labor markets throughout the economy. "Add to that the fact that travel has rebounded far quicker than many analysts and experts predicted, this is why I think you're seeing so many airlines caught a bit flat-footed in having to pare back the schedules they had set months ago," he said.
Barstool Sports CEO Erika Nardini joined Cheddar's Kristen Scholer to discuss plans for the future even as COVID-19 upended Barstool's sponsorship of the Arizona Bowl featuring the Boise State Broncos and the Central Michigan Chippewas due to the spreading omicron variant. "In our case as a company, coronavirus has been a big boom for us," she noted. "We've been able to create a lot of new programming, launch a lot of different personalities, and frankly take share from traditional media, and that's what we've done the entire pandemic." While she admitted to taking a hit on the canceled Bowl game, live events aren't completely off the table for Barstool in 2022. Nardini also talked about potential sports betting expansion following its partnership with Penn National Gaming.
Interest in the concept of the metaverse is heating up as more companies get on board, and Cathy Hackl, CEO of Futures Intelligence Group, a metaverse-focused consultancy, joined Cheddar to talk about trends to watch out for in 2022 and what it will take for it to be more than just a buzzword. Hackl noted that businesses likely will have to consider big technology upgrades in the upcoming year in order to keep up. "We're going to need new levels of computing power to be able to enable shared virtual experiences, both in VR but also in augmented reality," she said.
Stocks closed near session highs today amid a rebound from sell-offs fueled by fears of the Omicron COVID-19 variant. 1879 Advisors Vice Chairman Jim Bruderman joined Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss the markets' close and new economic data out today.
Small businesses in Washington, DC, are getting a visibility boost through the non-profit Grow Golden. The initiative connects local entrepreneurs with empty storefronts to establish pop-up shops in the heart of the DC business district, called the Golden Triangle. Cheddar's Arielle Hixson spoke with the small business owners about their experience building exposure through the program during the holiday season.
Home flipping is turning into a competitive space and a less profitable one according to the property database ATTOM. Todd Teta, chief product officer at ATTOM Data Solutions, joined Cheddar to break down key findings of the report, why the home-flipping market is raking in fewer returns, and what he thinks may have been behind real estate marketplace Zillow withdrawing from the business.
