In this March 25, 2020 file photo, a closed sign hangs in the window of a shop in Portsmouth, N.H., due to coronavirus concerns. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa, File)
Stocks swung back down Wednesday after more signs piled up of the economic damage being caused by the coronavirus outbreak.
Markets have been stuck cycling between fear and budding optimism in recent weeks as investors try to guess how long and deep the looming recession will be, with the switch often flipping overnight or even within the same day. Economists have been slashing their forecasts in preparation for what they say may be the worst downturn since the Great Depression, but several reports that came out Wednesday were even more dismal than expected.
Retail sales sank a record 8.7% last month as lockdowns around the country to slow the spread of the virus closed stores and kept people at home. A separate survey of business conditions for manufacturers in New York state plunged to its lowest level in history, by a wide margin. Industrial production across the country also failed to meet economists’ already low expectations.
Stocks around the world and Treasury yields were already down in early Wednesday trading, and their drops accelerated after the release of the reports. Lower yields are a sign that demand for relatively safe investments like U.S. government bonds is increasing.
The S&P 500 was down 2.4% after the first half-hour of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 494 points, or 2.1%, to 23,455, and the Nasdaq was down 1.9%.
Energy stocks took the sharpest losses after oil prices plunged to another 18-year low. Those in the S&P 500 index fell 5.8%.
Demand for oil around the world will fall this year by a record amount, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday. Benchmark U.S. crude touched its lowest price since 2002 before recovering slightly to $20.14 a barrel, little changed from a day earlier. Brent crude, the international standard, fell $1.27 to $28.30.
Earlier, the International Monetary Fund said this year's global economic output will shrink by 3%, a bigger loss than 2009's 0.1% decline during the financial crisis. That was a sharp reversal from the Fund's January forecast of 3.3% growth before the virus prompted governments to shut down factories, travel and other industries.
“The IMF forecast a deep economic winter," said Hayaki Narita of Mizuho Bank in a report. Narita said.
In Europe, London's FTSE 100 lost 2.5%, and the DAX in Frankfurt declined 3.2%. The CAC 40 in France retreated 2.9% to 4,437. The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo declined 0.5%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was off 1.2%.
Investors are focusing on how and when authorities may begin to ease business shutdowns and limits on people’s movements imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The S&P 500 had jumped 3.1% just a day earlier in hopes that the outbreak was leveling off in some hotspots and could lead to parts of the economy opening back up.
U.S. President Donald Trump has been discussing how to roll back federal social distancing recommendations. U.S. governors are collaborating on plans to reopen their economies in what is likely to be a gradual process to prevent the coronavirus from rebounding.
China has reopened factories, shops and other businesses after declaring victory over the outbreak but forecasters say it will take months for industries to return to normal output, while exporters will face depressed global demand.
Stocks closed lower to end the day Thursday, the second to last trading day of 2021. The Dow snapped a six-day winning streak, and the S&P 500 was weighed down by chip and energy stocks. This all comes as weekly jobless claims fell to a 52-year low to 198,000. Kevin Riley, Managing Partner at Exponential Investment Partners, joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss today's close, his 2022 market predictions, the state of business in China, and more.
Daniel Newman, Founding Partner and Principal Analyst at Futurum Research, joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell, where he says the markets are going to feel very uncomfortable receiving news of more potential setbacks for chip manufacturers after already enduring a lengthy chip shortage.
The federal government and numerous industries have been preparing for a greener future, setting goals to reduce greenhouse emissions by switching to electric vehicles. But the next hurdle to clear is convincing the wider public to get on board. Arun Kumar, managing director in automotive practice at AlixPartners, spoke to Cheddar's Ken Buffa about consumer trends related to EV transition and said he believes a widespread switch is imminent in 2022. Despite this, he acknowledged there are still significant obstacles to overcome, including high prices and more charging stations. "Without charging infrastructure, people are going to struggle with increasing adoption of electric vehicles in the future," Kumar told Cheddar. "I think by 2030 our estimate is that about a million chargers need to be put in place nationally in the U.S."
The pandemic has supercharged the creator economy, and there are no signs of it slowing down no matter when the pandemic officially ends. Creators prove to be a key factor in driving purchasing decisions and retail sales, and an increasing amount of platforms are taking advantage of the social influence. Karissa Bell, senior editor at Engadget, joins cheddar news to discuss the creator economy boom.
The National Women's Soccer League is partnering with Voyager Digital as its first-ever cryptocurrency brokerage in a multi-year deal. Marla Messing, interim CEO of the NWSL, and Steve Ehrlich, CEO of Voyager Digital, joined Cheddar to discuss benefitting the league and educating players and fans as a way of democratizing cryptocurrency. Messing explained that the players themselves will own half the assets as part of how the deal is structured. "My hope is, just in terms of the expectations of crypto over the long term, that I hope a lot of them are able to just let it sit there," she said. "And that one day this will be a nice retirement account for them."
Howard Lorber, chairman, president, and CEO of Douglas Elliman Inc., and Scott Durkin, CEO of Douglas Elliman Realty, joined Cheddar's "Opening Bell" to talk about the real estate brokerage company's recent IPO launch on the New York Stock Exchange following the spinoff of its tobacco subsidiary Vector Group. "There are many investors that cannot buy tobacco because of their mandates," said Lorber. "And therefore splitting off Douglas Elliman the real estate, and there's a lot of people looking for real estate investments, so they'll be able to buy Douglas Elliman, and those that want tobacco can buy Vector alone." The pair also discuss the future of New York real estate and the auxiliary business the property broker sees as growth prospects.
