In this March 25, 2020 file photo, a closed sign hangs in the window of a shop in Portsmouth, N.H., due to coronavirus concerns. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa, File)
Stocks swung back down Wednesday after more signs piled up of the economic damage being caused by the coronavirus outbreak.
Markets have been stuck cycling between fear and budding optimism in recent weeks as investors try to guess how long and deep the looming recession will be, with the switch often flipping overnight or even within the same day. Economists have been slashing their forecasts in preparation for what they say may be the worst downturn since the Great Depression, but several reports that came out Wednesday were even more dismal than expected.
Retail sales sank a record 8.7% last month as lockdowns around the country to slow the spread of the virus closed stores and kept people at home. A separate survey of business conditions for manufacturers in New York state plunged to its lowest level in history, by a wide margin. Industrial production across the country also failed to meet economists’ already low expectations.
Stocks around the world and Treasury yields were already down in early Wednesday trading, and their drops accelerated after the release of the reports. Lower yields are a sign that demand for relatively safe investments like U.S. government bonds is increasing.
The S&P 500 was down 2.4% after the first half-hour of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 494 points, or 2.1%, to 23,455, and the Nasdaq was down 1.9%.
Energy stocks took the sharpest losses after oil prices plunged to another 18-year low. Those in the S&P 500 index fell 5.8%.
Demand for oil around the world will fall this year by a record amount, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday. Benchmark U.S. crude touched its lowest price since 2002 before recovering slightly to $20.14 a barrel, little changed from a day earlier. Brent crude, the international standard, fell $1.27 to $28.30.
Earlier, the International Monetary Fund said this year's global economic output will shrink by 3%, a bigger loss than 2009's 0.1% decline during the financial crisis. That was a sharp reversal from the Fund's January forecast of 3.3% growth before the virus prompted governments to shut down factories, travel and other industries.
“The IMF forecast a deep economic winter," said Hayaki Narita of Mizuho Bank in a report. Narita said.
In Europe, London's FTSE 100 lost 2.5%, and the DAX in Frankfurt declined 3.2%. The CAC 40 in France retreated 2.9% to 4,437. The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo declined 0.5%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was off 1.2%.
Investors are focusing on how and when authorities may begin to ease business shutdowns and limits on people’s movements imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The S&P 500 had jumped 3.1% just a day earlier in hopes that the outbreak was leveling off in some hotspots and could lead to parts of the economy opening back up.
U.S. President Donald Trump has been discussing how to roll back federal social distancing recommendations. U.S. governors are collaborating on plans to reopen their economies in what is likely to be a gradual process to prevent the coronavirus from rebounding.
China has reopened factories, shops and other businesses after declaring victory over the outbreak but forecasters say it will take months for industries to return to normal output, while exporters will face depressed global demand.
This year - for the first time in five years - store openings might actually top announced store closings. Reports show that we're seeing companies opening up new locations by the dozens, and by the hundreds. The need for customers to touch and feel its' products is only one factor in the equation. John Harmon, senior analyst at Coresight Research, joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss.
Harry Yeh, Managing Director at Quantum Fintech Group, joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell, where he explains why his firm has a target estimate of $400,000 for Bitcoin this year.
California's new composting law will affect what residents do in their kitchens. As of this week, Californians will have to recycle excess food in an effort to reduce emissions caused by food waste. Cities and counties will turn recycled food into compost or use it as a renewable energy source. California's new law is the largest mandatory residential food waste recycling program in the country. Rachel Wagoner, Director of the California Department of Resources, Recycling and Recovery called the law 'the biggest change to trash' since recycling started in the 1980s. She joined Cheddar Climate to discuss.
Like the big changeover to e-commerce for retail, the COVID-19 pandemic has moved car buying trends to the digital showroom. Karl Brauer, an executive analyst at iSeeCars.com, joined Cheddar to talk about the "mindset shift" in consumers and businesses to order-based systems in the United States (something more common in other countries). While more than 60 percent of consumers still prefer to visit dealerships in-person, Brauer noted that consumers are better off ordering a car to spec, which would also help improve supply constraints. "It's really bad right now to be building cars and not really knowing who's going to buy them or when they're going to sell," he said. Manufacturing a car to order would maximize the efficiency of obtaining materials through the supply chain rather than "shotgunning it" at dealerships.
Mark MacDougall, attorney and former prosecutor with the criminal division of the Department of Justice, joined Cheddar to discuss the fraud conviction of Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes. MacDougall addressed Holmes' stance that what she did was no different than any other Silicon Valley startup's approach to business and how this will shake out for the industry going forward. "I can't imagine it doesn't have some salutary effect on entrepreneurs and people involved in new ventures going forward," he said. Holmes was found guilty on 4 of 11 counts, with each carrying a maximum of 20 years in prison, but MacDougall explained that the lengthy prison sentences were unlikely.
Sports betting is going mainstream in the United States. Dozens of states have legalized it, California is set to do the same this year. Arizona, which legalized sports betting in September, set new national records for gambling in its first months. Daniel Graetzer, CEO of Maximbet, joins Cheddar News to discuss what's next for the booming industry.
A new report from ProPublica and the Washington Post found that Facebook Groups played a major role in the spread of misinformation linked to the January 6 insurrection with more than 650,000 posts claiming that Joe Biden's election victory was illegitimate.
Ford is accelerating production of its highly anticipated electric F-150 Lightning with an expectation to pump out 150,000 vehicles annually to meet surging demand. Kumar Galhotra, Ford president of the Americas and international markets group, joined Cheddar to detail the plan to get more customers behind the wheel and to become the top of the competition in the electric vehicle space. "Within the next 24 months, we will have capacity, globally, to deliver 600,000 battery-electric vehicles per year," he said.
