Traders work on the floor at the opening bell of the Dow Industrial Average at the New York Stock Exchange on March 18, 2020 in New York. (Photo by BRYAN R. SMITH/AFP via Getty Images)
By Stan Choe
The vicious swings keep coming for the stock market, and the S&P 500 sank more than 3 percent in early trading Wednesday to erase much of the prior day's big gain.
Markets have been incredibly volatile for weeks as Wall Street and the White House acknowledge an increasing risk of a recession due to the coronavirus outbreak. The typical day this month has seen the stock market swing up or down by 4.9 percent. Over the last decade, the typical move was just 0.4 percent.
The selling pressure swept markets around the world. Benchmark U.S. oil fell 10 percent and dropped below $25 per barrel for the first time since 2002. European stock indexes lost 4 percent following broad losses in Asia. Even prices for longer-term U.S. Treasurys, which are seen as some of the safest possible investments, fell as investors flocked to the very shortest-term Treasury debt.
It was just a day ago that the S&P 500 surged 6 percent after President Donald Trump said he's "going big" in plans to aid an economy that's increasingly shutting down by the day. The program could approach $1 trillion, and it would follow a spate of emergency actions by the Federal Reserve and other central banks to get financial markets running more smoothly.
Despite all that, investors are struggling with how much to pay for anything — stocks, bonds, oil — when it's so uncertain how badly the economy is getting hit, how much profit companies will make and how many companies may go into bankruptcy due to a cash crunch.
"These are truly unprecedented events with no adequate historical example with which to precisely anchor our forecast," Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a report Wednesday.
With all the uncertainty and early evidence that China's economy was hit much harder by the virus than earlier thought, they now see "a severe global recession occurring in the first half of 2020."
But they also are still forecasting a relatively quick rebound, with activity beginning to bounce back in the second half of this year in part because of all the aid promised from central banks and governments.
Investors say they need to see the number of infections slow before markets can find a bottom. The number of new cases reported in China, where the virus emerged in December, is declining but infections in the United States, Europe and elsewhere are increasing.
The number of infections has topped 200,000 worldwide, and the virus has killed more than 8,000.
For most people, the coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough, and those with mild illness recover in about two weeks. Severe illness including pneumonia can occur, especially in the elderly and people with existing health problems, and recovery could take six weeks in such cases.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 828 points, or 3.9 percent, shortly after 10 a.m. Eastern time. after being down as many as 1,365 shortly after trading began. If it crosses back over the 1,000 threshold — which is not a big if given how steep swings have been within the same day — it would be the eighth straight day the Dow has moved by that much.
The S&P 500, which dictates how 401(k) accounts perform much more than the Dow, is down nearly 29 percent from its record set last month.
All the uncertainty has pushed many people toward safety. Last month, investors pulled $17.5 billion out of stock mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, even though stocks set all-time highs in the middle of the month. Money-market funds, meanwhile, drew $25.5 billion, according to Morningstar.
That was all before the market's sell-off accelerated this month, as broad swaths of the economy shut down in hopes of better containing the outbreak. Restaurants have closed to dine-in customers, planes are parked and sports arenas have been dimmed. Goldman Sachs strategists describe this month as "March Sadness."
Cheddar's Big Game Special gives you all the info you need heading into Sunday's event. Pro Football Hall of Famer Terrell Davis, Big Game MVP Hines Ward, and Big Game Champion Emmanuel Sanders dissect the action set to take place on the field, Olivia Harlan Dekker delivers her winning wagers, Tom Morton breaks down what we should expect from advertisers, Azia Celestino showcases the atmosphere from Los Angeles, and Baker Machado discusses what viewers should expect to see unfold during the halftime show.
As the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams prep to face each other in the Big Game at SoFi Stadium in LA, 55 percent of a record number of bettors are projected to drop money on the Rams. Casey Clark, the senior vice president of strategic communications for the American Gaming Association, joined Cheddar News to share some data and predictions based on the greater interest in gambling on Super Bowl LVI. "You know that means that people are migrating away from the predatory illegal market and corner bookie and moving their action into the legal marketplace," he said. "So really encouraging for consumer protections and for those of us who might want to have a little action on the game."
Facebook parent Meta and Grammy Award-winning singer Ciara have joined forces to help black female-owned small businesses. Selected businesses will receive marketing mentorship from Meta along with $100,000 to put into their brand. One such business, The Self Care Suite, is a platform that supports mental health, and founder Tara Pringle Jefferson, along with Irene Walker, Meta Elevate founder and program manager, joined Cheddar News to discuss the program. "Having this opportunity with Meta, with Ciara, really will allow us to focus on our virtual programming, to focus on our e-commerce shop, and, as we kind of adjust, to the new normal in 2022," said Pringle Jefferson.
Tesla has been under mounting regulatory scrutiny by the NHTSA, and has issued numerous recalls, including four within the past two weeks. While the company has issued recalls over the years, the number seems to be increasing in recent months as the company issues fixes for seat belt chimes, pedestrian alerts, its self-driving software, and more. What's behind this uptick in recalls — and how might this impact brand loyalty? Al Root, Senior Writer at Barron's, joins Closing Bell to discuss.
Under Armour released a successful Q4 earnings report amid supply chain issues. The apparel company said it invested in analytics to decipher what drives consumers to its brand. However, the company warned of potential supply problems going forward due to COVID.
Hyperice is a technology company that specializes in physical recovery for athletes, and it's now partnering with the NFL. Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers running back and Hyperice athlete-investor, and Jim Huether, Hyperice CEO, joined Cheddar News to discuss the partnership. "It's definitely for both for performance and for recovery, as somebody who plays a brutal sport and have to go through some of the unfortunate realities of injury," McCaffery said of the products. "You're always fighting for that 0.1 percent difference between winning and losing and and the little things and every second matters."
Aurora Cannabis showed a beat on sales for its quarterly earnings report, a positive sign despite a loss of $59 million. CEO Miguel Martin, joined Cheddar Movers to discuss its latest earnings and prospects for future growth. "If you look at our core businesses, they've all had a great quarter, so steady as we go. Our transformation plan is absolutely on track and we feel really good about where the company's going," he said. "Our balance sheet has never been stronger." Martin also discussed entering the U.S. market and the prospects for the medical marijuana market.
Elon Musk announced that he expects Starship to reach orbit in 2022. The SpaceX CEO delivered updates about the largest space vehicle to be constructed from its Texas facility. Jim Cantrell, CEO and co-founder at Phantom Space, joined Cheddar News to talk about the future of Starship. "I've always done wrong by betting against Elon," he said. "The one thing that I find very curious is it launches 100 metric tons into space, and last year, in the entire year, we launched 750. So, you know, with about seven launches, he could launch every satellite on Earth."
Shares of Astra fell after the aerospace company announced a failure to deliver its NASA satellite payload mid-launch, resulting in its stock price plummeting to the point where trading had to be halted twice.
