Stocks slipped again Thursday as investors braced for more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility is once again stirring up debates over whether the U.S. economy is headed for a recession.
"Our view right now is that for the next six months the U.S. economy should be okay," said Ahmed Riesgo, chief investment officer for financial services company Insigneo.
He said the strength of the January jobs report has put downward pressure on stocks because it showed resilience in the economy that many investors interpreted as a sign that more rate hikes were coming. Recent reports showing "sticky" inflation have had a similar effect.
These trends increase the odds of a recession, he added, because the uncertainty around inflation makes it more likely the Fed will make a policy mistake.
"Our base case is not a recession," he said. "But when you look a little bit further out over a 12 month period, I think the chances of a mild recession in the United States are very elevated."
He also cited recent comments from Fed officials as evidence for this theory. The nation's top bankers have signaled they are committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent annually, while also saying hitting that goal effectively requires inducing a recession.
In April, grocery prices rose by 1.2 percent, reaching pre-pandemic levels of food inflation. Could an e-commerce grocer be the solution? Thrive Market says yes
The Recording Academy CEO, Harvey Mason Jr., sat down with Cheddar to discuss what to expect on Sunday, February 2nd 2025 at the 67th Annual Grammy Awards.
Parsing through the latest news might make it feel impossible to tell how the U.S. economy is doing. This analyst's take? We're in the best case scenario.
The major indices reached all-time highs this week – but when it comes to that Dow Jones record, veteran CIO Kevin Mahn says, ‘I don’t even look at the Dow.’
