Stocks slipped again Thursday as investors braced for more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility is once again stirring up debates over whether the U.S. economy is headed for a recession.
"Our view right now is that for the next six months the U.S. economy should be okay," said Ahmed Riesgo, chief investment officer for financial services company Insigneo.
He said the strength of the January jobs report has put downward pressure on stocks because it showed resilience in the economy that many investors interpreted as a sign that more rate hikes were coming. Recent reports showing "sticky" inflation have had a similar effect.
These trends increase the odds of a recession, he added, because the uncertainty around inflation makes it more likely the Fed will make a policy mistake.
"Our base case is not a recession," he said. "But when you look a little bit further out over a 12 month period, I think the chances of a mild recession in the United States are very elevated."
He also cited recent comments from Fed officials as evidence for this theory. The nation's top bankers have signaled they are committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent annually, while also saying hitting that goal effectively requires inducing a recession.
A new poll finds U.S. adults are more likely than they were a year ago to think immigrants in the country legally benefit the economy. That comes as President Donald Trump's administration imposes new restrictions targeting legal pathways into the country. The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey finds Americans are more likely than they were in March 2024 to say it’s a “major benefit” that people who come to the U.S. legally contribute to the economy and help American companies get the expertise of skilled workers. At the same time, perceptions of illegal immigration haven’t shifted meaningfully. Americans still see fewer benefits from people who come to the U.S. illegally.
Shares of Tylenol maker Kenvue are bouncing back sharply before the opening bell a day after President Donald Trump promoted unproven and in some cases discredited ties between Tylenol, vaccines and autism. Trump told pregnant women not to use the painkiller around a dozen times during the White House news conference Monday. The drugmaker tumbled 7.5%. Shares have regained most of those losses early Tuesday in premarket trading.
Scott Trench, host of the BiggerPockets Money Podcast, explores how recent rate cuts, high borrowing costs, and mortgage rates are reshaping U.S. real estate.
A look into how disruption, AI, and global economic trends are transforming the modern supply chain with Jeremy Jansen, Head of Supply Chain at Wells Fargo.
Delta CSO Amelia DeLuca reveals at the Fast Co. Innovation Festival how tech, sustainable aviation fuel, and smart operations are revolutionizing air travel.
Chipmaker Nvidia will invest $100 billion in OpenAI as part of a partnership that will add at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia AI data centers to ramp up the computing power for the owner of the artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT.
Two of the nation’s biggest real estate services companies are combining in a deal that will bring Century 21, Compass and several other major brokerage brands under the same umbrella.
