For months, the conventional wisdom on the U.S. economy has been that, while there are numerous headwinds and headline risks to both the market and the underlying health of the economy, there has been an unwavering bright spot in the consumer. Earnings from the biggest banks on Wall Street appeared to only strengthen that belief, with every bank with a major U.S. retail arm ー from Chase to Citi to Wells Fargo ー noting strength in consumer spending.
That theory is now being put to the test. Retail sales for September came out Wednesday morning, showing the first decline in seven months. Overall sales fell 0.3 percent in September compared to estimates that called for a 0.3 percent increase, according to analysts polled by both Bloomberg and Reuters. It was the first decline since February of this year.
Jonathan Corpina, a senior managing partner at Meridian Equity Partners who trades on the floor of the NYSE, told Cheddar that the retail numbers point to a "double edge" in the economy. "Economically, our policies have gotten better," he said. "But there's still so much uncertainty."
"It's hard for individuals and companies to really make large, long-term investments at this point," Corpina said. Between Brexit, tariffs, trade, Fed policy, and presidential tweets, there is deep ambiguity that is giving investors pause, and Corpina said it's unlikely that's going to change before next year's election.
"The market continues to take two steps forward, one step back," he said.
Still, retail sales are just a "piece of the puzzle" that should be taken in context, especially with the indications from the the big banks that clients are still spending, and they are still lending. Consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy and has been growing at a brisk quarterly clip. Now the question is whether third-quarter data will show that a slowdown is spreading from the manufacturing sector to the consumer.
Upward revisions from the Commerce Department for August also helped soften the blow of the September surprise. Spending was particularly weak in auto dealerships, which saw a 0.9 percent drop, the largest since January. When excluding auto sales, gasoline, retail sales were essentially flat.
Joe Cecela, Dream Exchange CEO, explains how they are aiming to form the first minority-controlled company to operate an exchange in U.S. history. Watch!
A Michigan judge is putting sponges in the hands of shoplifters and ordering them to wash cars in a Walmart parking lot when spring weather arrives. Genesee County Judge Jeffrey Clothier hopes the unusual form of community service discourages people from stealing from Walmart. The judge also wants to reward shoppers with free car washes. Clothier says he began ordering “Walmart wash” sentences this week for shoplifting at the store in Grand Blanc Township. He believes 75 to 100 people eventually will be ordered to wash cars this spring. Clothier says he will be washing cars alongside them when the time comes.
The State Department had been in talks with Elon Musk’s Tesla company to buy armored electric vehicles, but the plans have been put on hold by the Trump administration after reports emerged about a potential $400 million purchase. A State Department spokesperson said the electric car company owned by Musk was the only one that expressed interest back in May 2024. The deal with Tesla was only in its planning phases but it was forecast to be the largest contract of the year. It shows how some of his wealth has come and was still expected to come from taxpayers.
At 100 years old, the Goodyear Blimp is an ageless star in the sky. The 246-foot-long airship will be in the background of the Daytona 500 — flying roughly 1,500 feet above Daytona International Speedway, actually — to celebrate its greatest anniversary tour. Even though remote camera technologies are improving regularly and changing the landscape of aerial footage, the blimp continues to carve out a niche. At Daytona, with the usual 40-car field racing around a 2½-mile superspeedway, views from the blimp aptly provide the scope of the event.
You'll just have to wait for interest rates (and prices) to go down. Plus, this deal's a steel, the big carmaker wedding is off, and bribery is back, baby!
