WASHINGTON (AP) — Chair Jerome Powell said Monday that the Federal Reserve is becoming more convinced that inflation is headed back to its 2% target and said the Fed would cut rates before the pace of price increases actually reached that point.
“We've had three better readings, and if you average them, that's a pretty good pace," Powell said of inflation in a question-and-answer question at the Economic Club of Washington. Those figures, he said, “do add to confidence” that inflation is slowing sustainably.
Powell declined to provide any hints of when the first rate cut would occur. But most economists and investors expect the central bank to begin cutting its key rate in September from its 23-year high, though a few now envision a rate cut as early as the Fed's next meeting later this month. The futures markets expect additional rate cuts in November and December.
“Today," Powell said, “I'm not going to send any signals on any particular meeting.”
Rate reductions by the Fed would, over time, reduce consumers’ borrowing costs for things like mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards.
Last week, the government reported that consumer prices declined slightly from May to June, bringing inflation down to a year-over-year rate of 3%, from 3.3% in May. So-called “core” prices, which exclude volatile energy and food costs and often provide a better read of where inflation is likely headed, climbed 3.3% from a year earlier, below 3.4% in May.
After several high inflation readings at the start of the year had raised some concerns, Fed officials said they would need to see several months of declining price readings to be confident enough that inflation was fading sustainably toward its target level. June was the third straight month in which inflation cooled on an annual basis.
After the government’s latest encouraging inflation report Thursday, Mary Daly, president of the Fed’s San Francisco branch, signaled that rate cuts were getting closer. Daly said it was “likely that some policy adjustments will be warranted,” though she didn’t suggest any specific timing or number of rate reductions.
But in a call with reporters, Daly struck an upbeat tone, saying that June’s consumer price report showed that “we’ve got that kind of gradual reduction in inflation that we’ve been watching for and looking for, which ... is actually increasing confidence that we are on path to 2% inflation.”
Many drivers of price acceleration are slowing, solidifying the Fed’s confidence that inflation is being fully tamed after having steadily eased from a four-decade peak in 2022.
Thursday’s inflation report reflected a long-anticipated decline in rental and housing costs. Those costs had jumped in the aftermath of the pandemic as many Americans moved in search of more spacious living space to work from home.
Hiring and job openings are also cooling, thereby reducing the need for many businesses to ramp up pay in order to fill jobs. Sharply higher wages can drive up inflation if companies respond by raising prices to cover their higher labor costs.
Last week before a Senate committee, Powell noted that the job market had “cooled considerably,” and was not “a source of broad inflationary pressures for the economy.”
U.S. stocks are rising and recovering some of their sell-off from Friday. The S&P 500 climbed 1.6%.
President Donald Trump says “there seems to be no reason” to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping as part of an upcoming trip to South Korea after China restricted exports of rare earths needed for American industry. The Republican president suggested Friday he was looking at a “massive increase” of import taxes on Chinese products in response to Xi’s moves. Trump says one of the policies the U.S. is calculating is "a massive increase of Tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States." A monthslong calm on Wall Street was shattered, with U.S. stocks falling on the news. The Chinese Embassy in Washington hasn't responded to an Associated Press request for comment.
Most members of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting committee supported further reductions to its key interest rate this year, minutes from last month’s meeting showed.
From Wall Street trading floors to the Federal Reserve to economists sipping coffee in their home offices, the first Friday morning of the month typically brings a quiet hush around 8:30 a.m. eastern, as everyone awaits the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report.
U.S. stocks are adding to their records as Wall Street cruises toward the finish line of another winning week. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% Friday and is heading for its seventh winning week in the last nine.
U.S. stocks edged up to more records. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.2%, while the Nasdaq composite climbed 0.4%. All three set all-time highs. Technology stocks helped lead the way after OpenAI announced partnerships with South Korean companies for its Stargate artificial-intelligence infrastructure project. Fair Isaac surged to its best day in nearly three years after unveiling a program where customers can potentially bypass big credit bureaus for FICO credit scores. Stock indexes also rose across much of Europe and Asia, while Treasury yields eased in the bond market.
U.S. stocks are drifting toward more records as Wall Street still doesn’t seem to care much about the latest shutdown of the U.S. government.
It pays less and less to buy and flip a home these days. The typical home flipping profit margin fell in the second quarter to its lowest level since 2008, with a typical return of 25.1% before expenses. That's according to an analysis by Attom, a real estate data company. Rising home prices are driving up acquisition costs, making flipping less profitable. The median price for a flipped home reached a record high of $259,700, according to Attom. Meanwhile, with many aspiring homeowners priced out of the market, real estate investors are taking up a bigger share of U.S. home sales overall.
A new report finds the Department of Government Efficiency’s remaking of the federal workforce has battered the Washington job market and put more households in the metropolitan area in financial distress.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday signaled a cautious approach to future interest rate cuts, in sharp contrast with other Fed officials who have called for a more urgent approach. In remarks in Providence, Rhode Island, Powell noted that there are risks to both of the Fed’s goals of seeking maximum employment and stable prices. His approach is in sharp contrast to some members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee who are pushing for faster cuts.
