Pennsylvania's Special Election Gives Pollsters a Sneak Peak Into the 2018 Midterms
There is a special election in Pennsylvania's 18th district Tuesday that could provide a clue as to what we'll see in November. Managing editor of political site Sabato's Crystal Ball, Kyle Kondik, says the party that holds the White House historically pays a penalty down the ballot.
The election comes because Republican Congressman Tim Murphy, who has held the seat since 2003, resigned. Kondik says Congressman Democrat Conor Lamb is culturally a good fit for the district and has out-funded Republican rival Rick Saccone.
Sabato's Crystal Ball rates the race as a true toss-up, which is somewhat shocking, because the district has always been red. Even if the Democrat loses, Kondik says, the fact there is even a tight race shows just how tough November could be for Republicans.
Sabato's Crystal Ball incorrectly predicted, like so many others, that Hillary Clinton would win the presidential election in 2016. Kondik says a lot of pollsters got caught up in Donald Trump's "strange candidacy," but traditional, political science models still have a track record of accurately predicting elections.
A former organizer of the far-right Proud Boys extremist group was sentenced on Thursday to 17 years in prison for spearheading an attack on the U.S. Capitol to prevent the peaceful transfer of power from Donald Trump to Joe Biden after the 2020 presidential election.
Former President Donald Trump has pleaded not guilty and waived arraignment in the case accusing him and others of illegally trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election in Georgia.
