Pennsylvania's Special Election Gives Pollsters a Sneak Peak Into the 2018 Midterms
There is a special election in Pennsylvania's 18th district Tuesday that could provide a clue as to what we'll see in November. Managing editor of political site Sabato's Crystal Ball, Kyle Kondik, says the party that holds the White House historically pays a penalty down the ballot.
The election comes because Republican Congressman Tim Murphy, who has held the seat since 2003, resigned. Kondik says Congressman Democrat Conor Lamb is culturally a good fit for the district and has out-funded Republican rival Rick Saccone.
Sabato's Crystal Ball rates the race as a true toss-up, which is somewhat shocking, because the district has always been red. Even if the Democrat loses, Kondik says, the fact there is even a tight race shows just how tough November could be for Republicans.
Sabato's Crystal Ball incorrectly predicted, like so many others, that Hillary Clinton would win the presidential election in 2016. Kondik says a lot of pollsters got caught up in Donald Trump's "strange candidacy," but traditional, political science models still have a track record of accurately predicting elections.
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As the 2022 midterm elections fast approach, here are some politicians Americans should be on the lookout for. Democratic Massachusetts state senator Sonia Chang-Diaz, who was the first Latina and Asian American woman to be elected to the state's senate, now has her eye on the governorship with Republican Charlie Baker leaving. New Jersey GOP candidate for Congress, Billy Prempeh also bears watching, and while Boston's newest mayor, Democrat Michelle Wu, was already sworn in last month, all eyes will be on Beantown as the first woman and first person of color to hold the office tries to usher in a new era for the city.
