There is a special election in Pennsylvania's 18th district Tuesday that could provide a clue as to what we'll see in November. Managing editor of political site Sabato's Crystal Ball, Kyle Kondik, says the party that holds the White House historically pays a penalty down the ballot. The election comes because Republican Congressman Tim Murphy, who has held the seat since 2003, resigned. Kondik says Congressman Democrat Conor Lamb is culturally a good fit for the district and has out-funded Republican rival Rick Saccone. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates the race as a true toss-up, which is somewhat shocking, because the district has always been red. Even if the Democrat loses, Kondik says, the fact there is even a tight race shows just how tough November could be for Republicans. Sabato's Crystal Ball incorrectly predicted, like so many others, that Hillary Clinton would win the presidential election in 2016. Kondik says a lot of pollsters got caught up in Donald Trump's "strange candidacy," but traditional, political science models still have a track record of accurately predicting elections.

Share:
More In Politics
Supreme Court Justice Stevens' Private Papers Open to Public
Newly opened records that belonged to Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens give the public a behind-the-scenes glimpse at his decades on the court, including the tense struggle over the 2000 presidential election and major cases on affirmative action and abortion.
Overhaul of Supreme Court Ethics Runs Into GOP Opposition
Senate Democrats promised Tuesday to pursue stronger ethics rules for the Supreme Court in the wake of reports that Justice Clarence Thomas participated in luxury vacations and a real estate deal with a top GOP donor. Republicans made clear they strongly oppose the effort.
Load More