By CARLO PIOVANO/Associated Press and Cheddar Staff
LONDON (AP) — The price of oil surged Friday on concerns that Iran might respond to the killing of its top general by the United States by disrupting global supplies of energy from the Middle East.
News that Gen. Qassem Soleimani, head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, was killed in an air attack at the Baghdad international airport prompted expectations of Iranian retaliation against U.S. and Israeli targets.
Amid past flare-ups with the U.S., Iran threatened the supply of oil that travels from the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world. About 20% of oil traded worldwide goes through the Strait of Hormuz, where the shipping lane is only 3 kilometers (2 miles) wide and tankers have come under attack this year.
The international benchmark for crude oil jumped 4.5%, or $2.98, to $69.23 a barrel in London trading. The U.S. contract was up 4.3%, or $2.60, to $63.78.
“Revenge will come, maybe not overnight, but it will come and until then we need to increase the geopolitical risk premium,” said Olivier Jakob, head of consultancy Petromatrix, in a note to investors.
He noted that Iran's response may not be limited to the Strait of Hormuz.
In September, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched drone attacks on the world's largest oil processing facility in Saudi Arabia. The strike briefly took out about half of the supplies from the world's largest oil exporter. The U.S. directly blamed Iran, which denied involvement.
Launching attacks that can't be easily linked back to Iran limits the chances of direct retaliation. However, Iran has also directly targeted tankers. This year it seized a British-flagged tanker, the Stena Impero, for several weeks. And it has shot down a U.S. military drone.
About 80% of the crude oil that travels through the Strait of Hormuz goes to countries in Asia, including China, Japan, India and South Korea. But cutting off the Strait of Hormuz puts Iran at risk of a more significant response from not just the U.S. but the global market as well, Head of Petroleum Analysis at Gasbuddy Patrick Dehaan told Cheddar. Dehaan said there is enough spare capacity within OPEC, the intergovernmental organization whose members account for almost half of global oil production, to make up for a shortage if Iran closes the strait.
Saudia Arabia is one of the few countries that has "spare capacity to very quickly increase output."
"Saudia Arabia is probably aligned with the U.S. and has the means to drive oil prices back down with spare capacity should Trump appeal to them to do so," he said.
A rise in the global price of oil will have a wider effect, particularly in oil-importing countries with big manufacturing sectors like Germany and Italy. Those countries fared worst in the stock market on Friday, with their main indexes falling 1.4% and 1.1% respectively.
The economic damage could be limited given that the energy market is flush with oil while the growth in demand has softened as major economies have slowed. And crude-producing countries - particularly the United States - have been pumping oil at a high rate. The U.S. now produces 13 million barrels of oil a day and imports between 6-8 million barrels of oil, largely coming from Canada, Dehaan said.
Though OPEC and key ally Russia agreed last month to cut their oil production, many countries have been pumping above their limits, which has so far kept the price of oil in check. On Friday, the Brent benchmark rose to its highest since May after largely hovering around $60 a barrel.
A gradual rise in renewable energy production could also limit the economic damage from a jump in crude prices. But experts note that fossil fuels like oil continue to provide the vast majority of energy that drives industry, transportation and heating, among other things.
Updated January 3 with context and quotes from Head of Petroleum Analysis at Gasbuddy Patrick Dehaan.
