How a Trade War Could Impact Employment in the U.S.
Another round of proposed tariffs, another market meltdown. That seemed to be the theme of the day...and the week.
On Friday, the Dow Industrials, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all fell by more than two percent, capping off another down week.
The latest declines came on the heels of President Trump saying he’s considering tariffs on an additional $100 billion worth of Chinese goods as a response to that country’s “unfair retaliation” to his initial tax proposal.
Comments from Secretary of Treasury Steve Mnuchin acknowledging the possibility of a trade war suggested that, this time, there may be real consequences to Trump’s proposal.
“This runs the risk of overplaying his hand,” said Clayton Allen, Vice President, Special Situations at Height Capital Management.
“This is a fear that’s possibly driven more by the concept of the worst possible outcome rather than by the realistic expectation of where this goes over the next three months.”
Another factor that pressured markets was the March jobs report, which showed the U.S. economy far fewer jobs last month than expected.
And if a trade war between the U.S. and China were to escalate, more jobs could be on the line, said Allen.
“Companies in the U.S. that...build things out of components shipped from China would...have a less competitive advantage if the price of those shipments goes up.”
Low-value imports are losing their duty-free status in the U.S. this week as part of President Donald Trump's agenda for making the nation less dependent on foreign goods. A widely used customs exemption for international shipments worth $800 or less is set to end starting on Friday. Trump already ended the “de minimis” rule for inexpensive items sent from China and Hong Kong, but having to pay import taxes on small parcels from everywhere else likely will be a big change for some small businesses and online shoppers. Purchases that previously entered the U.S. without needing to clear customs will be subject to the origin country’s tariff rate, which can range from 10% to 50%.
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