The race for 2020 is gaining speed today as the first votes are cast in Iowa, the first test of political strength, for the Democratic nominee for the presidency. Since the 1970s, Iowa has been the home of the first caucus.
Iowa voters take their pick seriously, as winners often gain momentum from the early voting. This year, with so many Democratic contenders still in the running and Bloomberg, a growing contender who bypassing early voting states entirely, there’s still a lot up in the air, meaning there’s a chance Iowans may not pick the candidate who will ultimately win the nomination at the convention. Caucus-goers have picked seven out of the last 11 Democratic presidential nominees but only four out of the last 11 GOP presidential nominees.
Here are five times the Iowa caucus results did not pick the eventual party nominees.
1988 Republicans
George H.W. Bush, who went on to claim the Republican nomination and the presidency in 1988 came in third in Iowa, after Bob Dole and Pat Robertson. Bush was the vice president at the time.
<i>President-elect George H.W. Bush and Senate Republican Leader Bob Dole meet reporters at the White House, Nov. 28, 1988. / Photo Credit: Shutterstock</i>
1992 Democrats
The last time Iowa got it wrong for Democrats was 1992, when Bill Clinton, the eventual nominee and president, only claimed 2.8 percent of the vote and came in fourth place. That year, the Iowa Senator Tom Harkin was running for president and claimed more than 75 percent of the caucus vote.
<i>Iowa Senator Tom Harkin talks with Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton at a party fund-raiser in Indianola, Iowa, Sept. 27, 1992. / Photo Credit: Charlie Neibergall/AP/Shutterstock</i>
2008 Republicans
When Barack Obama entered the national political scene, he won the Democratic caucus in 2008 and went on to win the presidency. But Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas governor, won the Republican caucus in Iowa. He would not go on to win the nomination. Senator John McCain, the eventual Republican nominee had come in fourth place in Iowa with 13.1 percent of the caucus vote. The previous time McCain was up for the nomination, in 2000, he nabbed only 4.7 percent of the caucus vote and came in fifth place. Eventual nominee and winner of the presidency George W. Bush came in first that year in Iowa, and businessman Steve Forbes came in second.
2012 Republican
In 2012, Rick Santorum squeaked by with a victory by just a tenth of a percent in the Iowa Caucus, though the Republican party had initially called it for Senator Mitt Romney (R-Utah) who later went on to nab the nomination and run against President Barack Obama.
2016 Republican
Today’s president, Donald Trump, did not win the Republican caucus in 2016. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) won 27.6 percent of the vote compared to Donald Trump who carried 24.3 percent.
This story was updated February 3 to clarify the number of times Iowa Democrats and Republicans have selected the candidate who ultimately became their party's candidate.
Inflation remains hot as the January PPI has increased by 1 percent, twice what analysts had been expecting with a jump of 9.7 over the year. Beth Ann Bovino, the U.S. chief economist, for S&P Global Ratings, joined Cheddar News to discuss the rapid pace of inflation alongside higher wages, predicting the Federal Reserve will act quickly and forcefully this year. "They haven't changed their forecast, yet, that's gonna come out soon. But we expect that a March rate hike is basically pretty much baked in the cake," she said. "We think six rate hikes in total for 2022."
For black history month, Cheddar is highlighting black business leaders who are driving the need for representation forward. On February 10, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce hosted an event called 'Developing the Black-Owned Business Ecosystem.' The virtual event was organized under the lobbying group's two initiatives -- the Equality of Opportunity Initiative, and the Coalition to Back Black Businesses. The event highlighted the developments needed to develop more black-owned businesses in the U.S. Dr. Anthony Wilbon, Dean of the School of Business at Howard University, joined Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss his experience as a speaker at the event.
A newly declassified letter by senators Ron Wyden and Martin Heinrich claimed the CIA. has been conducting a Secret Surveillance Program which has been collecting a bulk of data from American citizens. The letter which was written in April of 2021 urges the CIA to come clean about the kind of data it collects and how many Americans have been impacted. According to these two senators, the program did not have the safeguards of congressional oversight.
Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at National Securities, joined Cheddar News' Closing Bell, where he says investors are taking a wait-and-see approach when it comes to the situation between Russia and the Ukraine and elaborates on the impact higher oil prices stemming from the conflict would have on the market.
Last week, Senators Ron Wyden of Oregon and Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, Democrats on the Senate Intelligence Committee, wrote a a letter airing concerns that the CIA is collecting the data of American citizens without their consent. The lawmakers fear that the program might be exploiting private data. Morgan Wright, the chief security advisor at cybersecurity firm SentinelOne, joined Cheddar News to discuss the ramifications of the letter. "We don't have all the dots in one place to connect them," said Wright, cautioning against jumping to conclusions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that diplomacy is still possible, while U.S. officials warn that an attack on Ukraine is imminent. Cheddar News speaks with James Astill, Washington bureau chief of The Economist on the latest developments in Eastern Europe.
As the number of Russian troops rose to 130,000 along its Ukrainian border, hopes for a diplomatic solution remain among world leaders. Jason McMann, head of geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult, joined Cheddar News to break down the fluid situation. "We saw signs pointing towards an increase in tensions between Ukraine and Russia, whereas today we're seeing some signs that the Russian government may be willing to continue down a path of diplomatic negotiations to try and find some sort of non-military solution," he said.
Nancy Pelosi and House Democratic leaders are now planning to amend the stop trading on congressional knowledge act, otherwise known as the 'Stock' Act. This 2012 law governs how members disclose the purchase or sale of stocks and amending it would close a loophole, eliminating the trading of individual stocks by members of congress. Pelosi has consistently opposed a ban on stock trading by lawmakers and congressional staff...so what's changed? Kedric Payne, Vice President of Campaign Legal Center, joins Cheddar News to discuss.
In a 5-4 vote, the U.S. Supreme Court allowed for a controversial new version of the Alabama congressional map to remain in place. The lower court had previously ordered that the state must redraw that congressional map because it violates the Voting Rights Act by diluting the political power of Black voters. Redistricting expert Yurij Rudensky joins Cheddar News to weigh in.
