Opposition to May's Brexit Plan Threatens to Derail Negotiations
*By Chloe Aiello*
British Prime Minister Theresa May finally garnered European Union support for her Brexit plan, but unrest at home threatens to dismantle negotiations ー and lawmakers have warned there is no plan B.
"The worst case scenario for many, particularly for anyone who is a 'Remainer,' is that we leave the EU without a deal in place at all," Ayesha Javed, Deputy Editor of The Wall Street Journal's WSJ City, told Cheddar on Monday.
The 585-page deal is designed to keep the United Kingdom within the EU's economic orbit through a transitional period, after which those ties will slowly weaken. The deal includes provisions to prevent a hard border in Ireland, [according to the Guardian,](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/14/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-everything-you-need-to-know) and guarantees some legal protections for the millions of EU citizens living in the U.K. and vice versa. Much of the focus of the deal has been on goods, rather than on financial services, Javed added, and details concerning trade and securities must still be ironed out.
"The idea is to keep trade as friction-less as possible, although that seems unlikely to happen," she added.
By approving May's plan in Brussels on Sunday, the European Union lawmakers implicitly threw their support behind May, as she works to ensure U.K. Parliament votes to approve the agreement on Dec. 12. She faces tremendous opposition.
"There are lawmakers, for example on the opposition Labour side, who say that the deal goes too far. Some are still pushing for a second referendum. There are others within Theresa May's Conservative Party who say that the deal doesn't go far enough," Javed said. "Some say that this deal is the worst of all worlds. And others say this is just a compromise that Theresa May has had to come up with."
EU leaders have warned there is no alternative to the negotiated deal. If U.K. Parliament slaps it down, a few different things could happen.
In the event the deal dies in Parliament, May could request more time from the EU, although Javed said she doubts an extension would be approved. Alternatively, May could face a leadership challenge from within her own party. Lastly, "Remainers," or those who prefer the U.K. remain part of the EU, could opt for another referendum on Brexit. That, Javed said, would be "an extreme scenario," because in pushing for a referendum, the U.K. could ultimately end up leaving the EU with no deal at all.
A no-deal Brexit would "cause huge disruption at the borders, it would mean tariffs and checks at the borders, and all sorts of unforeseen circumstances, and so that's something that a lot of lawmakers are very keen to avoid," Javed said.
"So while many might try to hold out for another referendum, it could go entirely the other way," she added.
The U.K. is scheduled to officially leave the EU on Mar. 29, 2019.
A new analysis reveals that for more than two decades, the West has been the driest it has ever been since 800 A.D. The drought which began in 2000 has brought more devastating wildfires and draining water reserves well below healthy levels. Climate Scientists and Adjunct Associate Research Scientist at Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University,Benjamin Cook, joined Cheddar to discuss more.
Inflation remains hot as the January PPI has increased by 1 percent, twice what analysts had been expecting with a jump of 9.7 over the year. Beth Ann Bovino, the U.S. chief economist, for S&P Global Ratings, joined Cheddar News to discuss the rapid pace of inflation alongside higher wages, predicting the Federal Reserve will act quickly and forcefully this year. "They haven't changed their forecast, yet, that's gonna come out soon. But we expect that a March rate hike is basically pretty much baked in the cake," she said. "We think six rate hikes in total for 2022."
For black history month, Cheddar is highlighting black business leaders who are driving the need for representation forward. On February 10, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce hosted an event called 'Developing the Black-Owned Business Ecosystem.' The virtual event was organized under the lobbying group's two initiatives -- the Equality of Opportunity Initiative, and the Coalition to Back Black Businesses. The event highlighted the developments needed to develop more black-owned businesses in the U.S. Dr. Anthony Wilbon, Dean of the School of Business at Howard University, joined Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss his experience as a speaker at the event.
A newly declassified letter by senators Ron Wyden and Martin Heinrich claimed the CIA. has been conducting a Secret Surveillance Program which has been collecting a bulk of data from American citizens. The letter which was written in April of 2021 urges the CIA to come clean about the kind of data it collects and how many Americans have been impacted. According to these two senators, the program did not have the safeguards of congressional oversight.
Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at National Securities, joined Cheddar News' Closing Bell, where he says investors are taking a wait-and-see approach when it comes to the situation between Russia and the Ukraine and elaborates on the impact higher oil prices stemming from the conflict would have on the market.
Last week, Senators Ron Wyden of Oregon and Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, Democrats on the Senate Intelligence Committee, wrote a a letter airing concerns that the CIA is collecting the data of American citizens without their consent. The lawmakers fear that the program might be exploiting private data. Morgan Wright, the chief security advisor at cybersecurity firm SentinelOne, joined Cheddar News to discuss the ramifications of the letter. "We don't have all the dots in one place to connect them," said Wright, cautioning against jumping to conclusions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that diplomacy is still possible, while U.S. officials warn that an attack on Ukraine is imminent. Cheddar News speaks with James Astill, Washington bureau chief of The Economist on the latest developments in Eastern Europe.
As the number of Russian troops rose to 130,000 along its Ukrainian border, hopes for a diplomatic solution remain among world leaders. Jason McMann, head of geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult, joined Cheddar News to break down the fluid situation. "We saw signs pointing towards an increase in tensions between Ukraine and Russia, whereas today we're seeing some signs that the Russian government may be willing to continue down a path of diplomatic negotiations to try and find some sort of non-military solution," he said.
