After President Trump authorized a military strike killing a top Iranian military commander, the escalating conflict sent stocks down around the world, and oil and gold prices up on the first Monday of the new year.
Brent oil prices, the international benchmark, hit the $70 mark for the first time in three months and the price of West Texas Intermediate, the American oil benchmark, reached more than $63 a barrel after the Pentagon's announcement confirming an airstrike at Baghdad's airport. Crude oil last hit the $70 mark in September after drones suspected to have been launched by Iran struck Saudi Arabian oil plants. Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq account for almost half of the world's oil reserves.
Prices are up amid a growing list of concerns after the killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani: Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz, has already threatened retaliation, and said it will no longer abide by the 2015 nuclear deal the U.S. withdrew from two years ago, and Iraq voted to expel U.S. troops. The State Department warned of a "heightened risk" of a missile attack near U.S. bases.
It is unclear how Iran will respond to Trump's unilateral move. Oanda's Jeffrey Halley noted that "a big fat dollop of geopolitical uncertainty has landed on investors desks" in a report.
But J. Jay Park, CEO of ReconAfrica, said the geopolitical uneasiness isn't, alone, enough to continue driving oil prices up. He said what may continue to drive up prices is a change in supply. Park said supply, demand, OPEC decisions and compliance, geopolitics, and public sentiment about those four items affect oil prices. Uncertainty in Iran, coupled with a change in supply or demand may change the game. Iran may choose to close the Strait of Hormuz, a move Britain has forestalled by sending the Royal Navy to help ships pass through the Strait, through which 21 percent of 2018's global petroleum liquids consumption flowed.
"If that were to happen, the sky's the limit, over $100 easily," Park told Cheddar on Monday.
With the region on edge, stocks fell in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and across European markets.
In the meantime, Park said the current crisis may not drive up oil prices further.
"In the recent past we've seen a number of conflicts, for example the suspected Iranian attack on Abqaiq in Saudia Arabia, that kind of underwhelmed in terms of the extent to which these changes affected the overall price and how long that effect lasted," he said.
Despite concerns over inflation, worker shortages, and global supply chain issues, retailers saw a surge in shoppers in October. Major retailers have also reported strong quarterly earnings ahead of the holiday shopping season as businesses have continued to bounce back from pandemic sale slumps. David Swartz, Consumer Equity Research analyst at Morningstar Research Services explains why consumers are still flocking to stores despite a rise in some prices.
Jack Dorsey is officially out as Twitter's CEO. Dorsey said in a statement that the platform is ready to move away from its founders and now will be led by current CTO Parag Agrawal.
Canada is looking to offset the rising cost of maple syrup by tapping its strategic reserve. Producers in Quebec, accounting for 73 percent of all the maple syrup in the world, will release half of its stockpile amounting to 50 million pounds worth.
Jared Kessler, CEO of real estate firm EasyKnock, joined Cheddar to talk about the housing market staying hot at a time it usually cools down. He attributed part of it to low interest rates and buyers wanting to secure homes before they begin rising again. "We're definitely, at some point, in for higher rates," he said. "Right now, that's a very tough question for the Federal Reserve."
Scott Helfstein, executive director of thematic investing at ProShares, joined Wake Up With Cheddar to break down the early data on Black Friday. Americans were ready to return to in-person shopping after the pandemic fueled a surge in online sales last year. Online sales dipped this year and in-store foot traffic topped 2020 but has yet to reach pre-pandemic levels. "It might not get much better than this for brick and mortar as we wrap up this year, whereas, the online has been in a long-term secular growth trend," he said.
The holidays are here, which means many will raise a glass. In fact, data shows the average American doubles their booze intake between Thanksgiving and New Years, with about 45% of those drinkers choosing vodka as their liquor of choice. Tony Latham, Bacardi's CFO, tells Cheddar what he anticipates will be the most popular spirit or cocktail this holiday season, as well as other trends going into the new year.
This holiday season, e-commerce sales are expected to hit 207 billion dollars, with17 percent of that chunk will occuring between the days of the deals - black friday and cyber monday. Deren Baker, CEO of edge by ascential, joins Cheddar News to give a Cyber Monday preview.
