After President Trump authorized a military strike killing a top Iranian military commander, the escalating conflict sent stocks down around the world, and oil and gold prices up on the first Monday of the new year.
Brent oil prices, the international benchmark, hit the $70 mark for the first time in three months and the price of West Texas Intermediate, the American oil benchmark, reached more than $63 a barrel after the Pentagon's announcement confirming an airstrike at Baghdad's airport. Crude oil last hit the $70 mark in September after drones suspected to have been launched by Iran struck Saudi Arabian oil plants. Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq account for almost half of the world's oil reserves.
Prices are up amid a growing list of concerns after the killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani: Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz, has already threatened retaliation, and said it will no longer abide by the 2015 nuclear deal the U.S. withdrew from two years ago, and Iraq voted to expel U.S. troops. The State Department warned of a "heightened risk" of a missile attack near U.S. bases.
It is unclear how Iran will respond to Trump's unilateral move. Oanda's Jeffrey Halley noted that "a big fat dollop of geopolitical uncertainty has landed on investors desks" in a report.
But J. Jay Park, CEO of ReconAfrica, said the geopolitical uneasiness isn't, alone, enough to continue driving oil prices up. He said what may continue to drive up prices is a change in supply. Park said supply, demand, OPEC decisions and compliance, geopolitics, and public sentiment about those four items affect oil prices. Uncertainty in Iran, coupled with a change in supply or demand may change the game. Iran may choose to close the Strait of Hormuz, a move Britain has forestalled by sending the Royal Navy to help ships pass through the Strait, through which 21 percent of 2018's global petroleum liquids consumption flowed.
"If that were to happen, the sky's the limit, over $100 easily," Park told Cheddar on Monday.
With the region on edge, stocks fell in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and across European markets.
In the meantime, Park said the current crisis may not drive up oil prices further.
"In the recent past we've seen a number of conflicts, for example the suspected Iranian attack on Abqaiq in Saudia Arabia, that kind of underwhelmed in terms of the extent to which these changes affected the overall price and how long that effect lasted," he said.
John Petrides, Portfolio Manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell, where he breaks down Monday's market activity amid the emergence of the omicron variant, and what it could mean for the Fed's timeline when it comes to raising rates and tapering pandemic aid.
Amid continued volatility due to COVID-19, high inflation, and changing consumer and business behavior, what are investors thinking as we close out the fourth quarter and look ahead to 2022? Hady Farag, Partner and Associate Director at Boston Consulting Group, joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss what investors are prioritizing, what risks they are watching out for, and more.
Don Basile, CEO, Monsoon Blockchain & Founder of Bitcoin Latinum, joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell, where he explains why we're seeing major crypto investors look to purchase expensive pieces of art, and discusses what the NFT space could look like in the not-too-distant future.
Jack Constantine, chief digital officer and product inventor at Lush, joined Cheddar to talk about the cosmetic company's mass exodus from major social media platforms TikTok, Facebook, Instagram, and Snapchat, in the wake of recent reports that Instagram specifically had negative impacts on teen girls. He noted that with teenage girls being a large part of its consumer base and audience, Lush had a responsibility to market its company on outlets that prioritize mental wellbeing. "For us, we've always been a social brand, and it started to feel that social media was no longer offering what we felt we wanted to gain from it," he said. "And then obviously when you add that to the damage that it's causing, it just feels like a combination that we can't continue on with." The company also pulled out of social media platforms in 2019.
Jon Lowen, Co-Founder of Surfside, joined Wake Up With Cheddar's Baker Machado to discuss Uber's partnership with cannabis retailer Tokyo Smoke, as it's the first time a cannabis merchant has been listed on UberEats across all of its global markets.
Financial Expert Jessica Weaver joined Cheddar's Jill Wagner to discuss some money-saving tips for Americans as inflation and supply chain issues herald the most expensive Thanksgiving meal yet.
Jack Dorsey resigned from his post as CEO of the social media company on Monday and will be replaced by chief technology officer Parag Agrawal. Mitch Rubin, portfolio manager at RiverPark Long/Short Opportunity Fund, joined Cheddar to break down the move and what it means for investors in both Twitter and Square, the payment company that Dorsey also helms. "For the long-term, I think this is very positive news for both companies," he said. Rubin also talked about growing competition in the social media space and why Twitter continues to lag behind other major players.
Friday saw big sell offs, with the Dow Jones posting its worst day since October 2020, falling 905 points, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 each tumbling more than two percent as well. Much of that due to investor concerns over the new Covid-19 'Omicron' variant first detected in South Africa. Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda explains what investors should expect this week.
Earlier in the week, we saw President Biden nominate Jerome Powell to serve as Fed chair for another four-year term in the midst of the country’s struggles with covid, inflation, and supply unrest. Claudia Sahm, senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute and former Federal Reserve and White House economist explains why the markets saw a boost following the nomination.
