After President Trump authorized a military strike killing a top Iranian military commander, the escalating conflict sent stocks down around the world, and oil and gold prices up on the first Monday of the new year.
Brent oil prices, the international benchmark, hit the $70 mark for the first time in three months and the price of West Texas Intermediate, the American oil benchmark, reached more than $63 a barrel after the Pentagon's announcement confirming an airstrike at Baghdad's airport. Crude oil last hit the $70 mark in September after drones suspected to have been launched by Iran struck Saudi Arabian oil plants. Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq account for almost half of the world's oil reserves.
Prices are up amid a growing list of concerns after the killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani: Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz, has already threatened retaliation, and said it will no longer abide by the 2015 nuclear deal the U.S. withdrew from two years ago, and Iraq voted to expel U.S. troops. The State Department warned of a "heightened risk" of a missile attack near U.S. bases.
It is unclear how Iran will respond to Trump's unilateral move. Oanda's Jeffrey Halley noted that "a big fat dollop of geopolitical uncertainty has landed on investors desks" in a report.
But J. Jay Park, CEO of ReconAfrica, said the geopolitical uneasiness isn't, alone, enough to continue driving oil prices up. He said what may continue to drive up prices is a change in supply. Park said supply, demand, OPEC decisions and compliance, geopolitics, and public sentiment about those four items affect oil prices. Uncertainty in Iran, coupled with a change in supply or demand may change the game. Iran may choose to close the Strait of Hormuz, a move Britain has forestalled by sending the Royal Navy to help ships pass through the Strait, through which 21 percent of 2018's global petroleum liquids consumption flowed.
"If that were to happen, the sky's the limit, over $100 easily," Park told Cheddar on Monday.
With the region on edge, stocks fell in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and across European markets.
In the meantime, Park said the current crisis may not drive up oil prices further.
"In the recent past we've seen a number of conflicts, for example the suspected Iranian attack on Abqaiq in Saudia Arabia, that kind of underwhelmed in terms of the extent to which these changes affected the overall price and how long that effect lasted," he said.
Nikola announced that it delivered its first electric semi trucks last week, sending the embattled EV company's stock soaring. There is a lot of competition in this space, though, said Lauren Fix, an automotive analyst with Car Coach Reports. While every country has companies racing to dominate the electric trucking industry, she explained, a shortage of graphite, used in batteries, and a dearth of convenient charging stations will still keep growth slow in 2022. "You really have to be very careful when you're investing in this marketplace," Fix said. "That's great that [Nikola was] able to deliver one, but can they deliver more?"
It looks like the supply chain didn't steal Christmas this year after all. Retail sales jumped 8.5 percent between November 1 and December 24, compared with the same period last year, according to a report from Mastercard. That's the strongest growth in 17 years. Jharonne Martis, director of consumer research at Refinitiv, joined Cheddar to discuss how retailers were able to do so well despite inflation, supply chain issues, and the COVID-19 omicron variant but gave a subdued outlook for the retail sector at the beginning of 2022. "Consumers are not just completely isolated from the inflation issues," she said. "This is definitely going to continue into the first half of the year, as per our IFR data."
Hotel cancellations are on the rise ahead of the holidays as the omicron variant spreads around the world. Online hotel search site Trivago noted a 35 percent jump in cancellations since November. Axel Hefer, managing director and CEO at Trivago, joined Cheddar to discuss this worrying trend. Hefner said it is important for both travelers and businesses to watch how the 2021-2022 winter travel season unfolds as it will help them prepare for next year as the pandemic will likely be ongoing.
Markets opened slightly higher to kick off the final trading week of the year as investors continue to watch the Omicron variant in the U.S. Sean O'Hara, President, Pacer ETFs joined Cheddar's Opening Bell to discuss what drove early market activity.
Eric Mitchell, Sports Analyst and President & CEO of LifeFlip Media, breaks down the updated rules around testing in the NFL and outlines how vaccinated players are impacted by new return-to-play guidelines.
Carlo and Baker kick off the weirdest week of the year with all the news you missed over the holiday weekend, including calls for the CDC to shorten its isolation window as Omicron sweeps through the country.
