There is no longer a question of whether we are headed for a recession, according to many on both Wall Street and Main Street.
Economists from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs this week said a worldwide recession is now a “base case,” and that the U.S. economy will see a decline of 5 percent in GDP in the second quarter.
More than 60 percent of Americans also think a recession will come in the next year, according to a new study by YouGov.
The good news, however, is that both banks anticipate a bounce back. But most Americans say they don’t feel the country is ready to withstand a downturn.
Goldman Sachs predicts a 3 to 4 percent growth in the latter six months of the year. Morgan Stanley sees global growth at 0.9 percent for the full year — worse than the 2001 recession, but less severe than the 2008 financial crisis.
YouGov’s study found just 29 percent of the country was at least somewhat prepared to get through a downturn, while a majority (59 percent) said no.
The outbreak of the coronavirus worldwide is the kind of unforeseen factor that has seized markets and economies globally. But respondents said the way government leaders have responded also plays a role in their viewpoints.
According to an exclusive YouGov poll conducted for Cheddar, 72 percent of Americans believe that a U.S. president has an influence on a country’s economic standing. The remainder — 28 percent — said they believe a president has not very much or no influence.
Across age groups, the vast majority responded in a similar breakdown:
When viewed across party lines the answers reflect bipartisanship, but still skew majority:
In terms of how personally ready Americans feel they are for a recession, more people were likely to say they were not very or not at all prepared for a recession (46 percent) than somewhat or very prepared (42 percent).
Those with higher incomes reported feeling more prepared
Those who felt not very prepared or not at all prepared were more likely to make less than $80,000
Respondents who reported making less than $80,000 were also more likely to respond that they weren’t sure if they were prepared or not — around 10 percent versus 4 percent of those who reported making $80,000 or more.
There have been various proposals on how to ease the financial burden on Americans during this situation. On Wednesday President Donald Trump signed a broad relief bill that promises healthcare-related assurances, including paid emergency leave and free testing for Covid-19 to start.
A potential expansion of the relief being discussed includes direct checks that could mean $1,000 per adult and $500 per child.
Some believe this may not be enough -- the New York Times editorial board wants the federal government to send $2,000 to every American immediately.
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