With warmer oceans serving as fuel, Atlantic hurricanes are now more than twice as likely as before to rapidly intensify from wimpy minor hurricanes to powerful and catastrophic, a study said Thursday.

Last month Hurricane Lee went from barely a hurricane at 80 mph (129 kph) to the most powerful Category 5 hurricane with 155 mph (249 kph) winds in 24 hours. In 2017, before it devastated Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria went from a Category 1 storm with 90 mph (145 kph) to a top-of-the-chart whopper with 160 mph (257 kph) winds in just 15 hours.

The study looked at 830 Atlantic tropical cyclones since 1971. It found that in the last 20 years, 8.1% of the time storms powered from a Category 1 minor storm to a major hurricane in just 24 hours. That happened only 3.2% of the time from 1971 to 1990, according to a study in the journal Scientific Reports. Category 1 hurricanes top out at 95 mph (153 kph) and a hurricane has to have at least 111 mph (178 kph) winds to become major.

Those are the most extreme cases, but the fact that the rate of such turbocharging has more than doubled is disturbing, said study author Andra Garner, a climate scientist at Rowan University in New Jersey.

When storms rapidly intensify, especially as they near land, it makes it difficult for people in the storm’s path to decide on what they should do — evacuate or hunker down. It also makes it harder for meteorologists to predict how bad it will be and for emergency managers to prepare, Garner and other scientists said.

“We know that our strongest, most damaging storms very often do intensify very quickly at some point in their lifetimes,” Garner said, highlighting 2017's Maria, which some researchers said killed nearly 3,000 people directly and indirectly. “We’re talking about something that’s hard to predict that certainly can lead to a more destructive storm.”

And this “has become more common in the last 50 years,” Garner said. “This has all happened over a time period when we’ve seen ocean waters get warmer.”

“We’ve had 90% of the excess warming that humans have caused to the planet going into our oceans,” Garner said.

Oceans this year have been setting heat records monthly since April with scientists warning of off-the-charts temperatures.

Garner found the rapid intensification of hurricanes was primarily along the East Coast’s Atlantic seaboard, more so than the Gulf of Mexico.

It’s not just the cases of extreme rapid intensification. Garner looked at all storms over different time periods and found that in general they’re intensifying faster than they used to.

There have been more Atlantic storms in the last few decades than in the 1970s and 1980s – scientists have several theories for why, from changes in air pollution to natural cycles – but Garner said by looking at percentages she took out the storm frequency factor.

Previous studies had found an increase in rapid intensification. Garner’s study was statistically meticulous in confirming what scientists had figured, said Karthik Balaguru, a Pacific Northwest National Lab climate scientist who last year had a paper demonstrating how storms near the Atlantic coast are intensifying faster before landfall than they did in the 1970s and 1980s.

The National Hurricane Center considers a storm to rapidly intensify if it increases wind speed by 35 mph (46 kph) in 24 hours.

In 2020, a record year for hurricanes and the last year of Garner’s study, six storms rapidly intensified that much. Hannah, Laura, Sally, Teddy, Gamma and Delta. Since then, there have been several rapid intensifying and deadly storms, including 2021’s Ida, 2022’s Ian and 2023’s Idalia.

“If we don't work to lower our (carbon) emissions, then that's a trend that we likely could expect to see continue to happen in the future" and even get worse, Garner said.

Share:
More In Science
NASA's Most Powerful Telescope, James Webb Space Telescope, Ready For Launch
After two decades of engineering, over $10 billion, and a series of delays, the most powerful telescope built by NASA is finally scheduled to launch on Saturday. The James Webb Space Telescope was built to provide a fresh look at the universe by detecting light that is invisible to the human eye and to reveal new information about the universe's oldest stars and galaxies. Lou Strolger, observatory scientist and deputy head of instruments division, space telescope, joins Cheddar News.
NHL Not Going to Olympics Due to COVID-19 Surge
The 2022 Winter Olympics will be without some of hockey's biggest players. The NHL and the NHL Player's Association have agreed to not participate in the men's hockey tournament at the Games in Beijing next year. The league has been forced to postpone some games because of a rise in COVID-19 cases among players. Washington Post sports reporter Samantha Pell joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss what this could mean for the Winter Olympics and the sport of hockey.
U.S. Opens Investigation into Tesla's 'Passenger Play' Feature
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has opened a formal investigation into Tesla. The agency is looking into about 580,000 Tesla vehicles, and a feature called 'Passenger Play' which allows drivers to play video games on the center touch screen. The feature previously only worked when a vehicle was in park; but, the NHTSA says it has confirmed that the feature has been available while vehicles are in motion since December of 2020. iSeeCars.com executive analyst Karl Brauer joins Cheddar News' Closing Bell to discuss.
Baron Davis & Kate Hudson Star in New Ad for Cannabis-Infused Seltzer Brand Cann
Baron Davis and Kate Hudson want you to bring cannabis home for the holidays. The cannabis-infused seltzer brand Cann released a new spot featuring the actress and former NBA player. The campaign comes hand in hand with Cann's launch of a new holiday bundle, which includes its product with Hudson's King Street Vodka. Davis and Hudson are also Cann investors. Cheddar cannabis reporter Chloe Aiello spoke to Davis about his involvement with the company and its new campaign.
How Universities Might Be Playing for Time With Remote Learning as Omicron Surges
Universities like UCLA, Yale, and Duke have announced they're implementing remote learning amid the COVID omicron variant surge, despite President Biden recommending that K-12 schools should continue in-person education. Jared C. Bass, senior director for Higher Education at American Progress, joined Cheddar to break down what institutions of higher education might be considering differently. "I think some universities are allowing periods of a bit of a respite to allow students to get testing and make sure when they do return back to campus that they're healthy," he noted.
EV Expert Makes the Case for Domestic Mining for Lithium for Batteries
Supply chain issues have become one of the biggest roadblocks for the U.S. EV market, with production woes likely to stunt the industry's growth in 2022. Rich Steinberg, electric vehicle expert and industry advisor, told Cheddar that the Biden administration investing in domestic mining for essential minerals used in battery manufacturing — such as lithium — could help alleviate the bottlenecks. "Some of those same materials are available domestically, they just haven't been prioritized," he said, noting the paradox between green tech and "dirty" mining. "The good news is that there are ways to extract those materials cleanly."
Maker of First FDA-Approved Portable MRI Machine Hyperfine Goes Public
Hyperfine, the pioneer of the very first FDA-approved portable MRI device, made its public debut on the Nasdaq via a SPAC merger. CEO Dave Scott joined Cheddar's "Opening Bell" to discuss the IPO launch, the company's valuation at $580 million, and the impact of its machine called Swoop. "We can roll an MRI system, our MRI Swoop system, right into the room where you are, right up to your patient bedside, and scan you right there and get an image in less than an hour," he explained.
Load More